After surging against all paper currencies, gold is finally making it to mainstream Irish media in multiple headlines and articles. It only took 25 years! It is no wonder. This week gold breached over $5000 or €4200. Gold’s lack of long-term attention by economists, mirrored by asset managers almost everywhere, was an ideological trap wrapped in uncritical acceptance of Keynesian money printing. By contrast and closer to the Austrian school of economics I’ve been advocating, gold, in books and broadcasting, since it hovered at $250 in the noughties. Naturally, it’s hard to think in long cycles when the news is in short ones, but what is now unfolding is a logical recalibration. The Pivot, a book I wrote in 2017, is about how the world pivots off the debt unsustainability path.

The current and dramatic pivot in US strategy is part of the pathway. Leaving aside the hyperfocus on President Trump’s modus operandi, the USA is precisely following a playbook to address its deep structural problems, which stem from decades of overextension mirrored across many developed economies but added to by its reserve currency status and the costs of Pax Americana. The USA debt is €38 trillion, the servicing costs of which exceed its defence spending to 2025 at $1 trillion.

You can concisely summarise many of the fault lines commonly shared across the developed world with hindsight:

• Long-term deficit financing that has led to highly elevated national debt to GDP and left many countries on unsustainable trajectories and pricing up bond yields

• Globalisation that delivered cheap goods but at the huge cost of unsustainability and deindustrialisation

• Security and economic vulnerabilities from weaponised supply chains into opponent regions like China (and especially for Germany, both China and Russia).

• Destabilising transfers in wealth to the oligarchical class from workers, leading to political change.

• Flat real wage growth and the hollowing out of the middle classes facing higher taxes and unaffordable housing for the young.

• Destructive zero-carbon strategies on unachievable timelines hammering energy affordability and sustainability where economics was subverted by ideology

• Social movements that turned inward, leading to fragmentation of cohesion in societies. This includes DEI policy built on ‘white privilege’ and transgender movements absent scientific grounding like the Cass study.

• Open borders without volume or quality limits that erode social safety nets and are widely perceived to be at the expense of native populations.

The global financial landscape is undergoing a profound recalibration, driven by unsustainable debt trajectories that have pushed government borrowing beyond sustainable thresholds across many nations. Debt-to-GDP ratios remain elevated, with global government debt surpassing $100 trillion and approaching or exceeding 100% of world GDP in recent assessments. Interest payments on this debt continue to strain budgets, even as short-term rates have eased following cuts by major central banks like the ECB, Fed, and Bank of England. Yet long-term government bond yields have largely stabilised or flatlined through 2025 and into 2026, reflecting lenders’ growing caution.

Major investors and creditors are scrutinising national balance sheets more rigorously, demanding higher compensation for funding sovereign liabilities amid rolling debt maturities and persistent fiscal pressures. This dynamic marks a departure from past norms, underscored by gold’s role as a reliable indicator of shifting confidence in the fiat currency system established after the 1971 end of the gold standard.

A pivotal development came in 2019 when the Bank for International Settlements recognised gold as a Tier 1 reserve asset for banks. Since then, aggressive accumulation by central banks worldwide has accelerated, with net purchases often exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually in recent years. By 2025–2026, foreign central banks’ gold holdings surpassed their U.S. Treasury holdings in value for the first time in nearly three decades—reaching near or above $4 trillion in gold compared to roughly $3.9 trillion in Treasuries. This shift highlights a strategic pivot toward assets free from counterparty risk, portability, and neutrality over yield-dependent instruments.

At the heart of this evolution lies the United States’ recognition that the burdens of global leadership—including extensive military commitments and the costs of maintaining the dollar’s reserve status—are increasingly difficult to sustain on current trajectories. U.S. policymakers have pursued a deliberate strategy to rebalance responsibilities, stepping back from the role of sole global guarantor and urging allies to assume greater self-reliance.

This approach has manifested most clearly in transatlantic relations. Through direct engagement and firm expectations, the U.S. has compelled European NATO members to accelerate defence investments. What began as pressure for the longstanding 2% GDP target has evolved into commitments toward significantly higher levels—potentially 5% of GDP when combining core military outlays (around 3.5%) with related infrastructure and resilience spending. Nations like Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania have led the way, while broader European alignment has gained momentum, particularly at key summits. This reallocation might have unfolded more gradually through multilateral talks, but the urgency injected by U.S. policy has hastened progress, prompting Europe to bolster its own capabilities rather than rely predominantly on American cover.

Ireland, too, faces this reality. Long benefiting from the security umbrella provided by NATO and U.S. commitments, Ireland’s historically low defence outlays must evolve to reflect a changing environment, with adjustments already underway.

Parallel to security shifts, fiscal recalibration is underway in major economies. Government spending as a share of GDP has climbed steeply in places like Germany and Italy (nearing 50%), with the UK, Spain, and others not far behind. High public expenditure—including expansive NGO ecosystems—limits growth potential and crowds out private-sector dynamism. The path forward demands smarter allocation: protecting essential social safety nets while driving efficiency gains across public and private sectors to boost productivity and real wage growth.

This broader reorientation means facing long-standing imbalances from globalisation, including wealth concentration and middle-class erosion. By prioritising domestic resilience, industrial strength, and fairer trade practices, these inevitable strategies will seek to rebuild economic foundations. US tariffs have played a dual role here—not merely as a revenue tool (generating substantial inflows, with customs duties soaring in 2025) but as leverage to reshape global trading relationships and encourage reciprocal commitments.

For financial markets, the outlook hinges on how decisively governments address these unsustainable paths. Bond yields reflect elevated debt concerns, resisting sharper declines despite policy-rate cuts. The consensus forecasts by asset managers point to relatively stable bond performance in the near term, with potential upside if credible fiscal discipline emerges. Equities are expected to have a volatile but moderately positive 2026.

Gold’s surge—fuelled by central bank demand and recognition as a foundational reserve—signals expectations of incremental or more profound changes to the global monetary framework. Rather than a wholesale digital overhaul, a partial reanchoring to tangible assets like gold now appears more plausible and likely, aligning with historical precedents and broad understanding.

Davos demonstrated that the longstanding North Atlantic order is being reshaped at pace, with no return to prior arrangements. By focusing on underlying logic—fiscal sustainability, shared security burdens, and productive growth—countries and economies can navigate toward greater resilience. The pivot is here; adaptation defines the path ahead.

Eddie Hobbs

PS: The above isn’t investment advice, which requires a regulated advisory process that includes profiling, researching and reporting.

If you’d like to go into more detail or undertake an overall strategic review, you can contact my financial firm, Hobbs Financial Practice Ltd, at +353 (45) 409354 or eddie@eddiehobbs.com

This maps out a fundamental reordering of US positioning, behaviour, and outlook, recognising that it can no longer act as the global policeman or provide security cover to Europe, which it sees as largely led by weak governments restricting free speech and failing to defend borders. The rest of this bulletin looks at the macro-economic backdrop.

Macro-Economic Backdrop

As we approach year-end, I deal next with the good, the bad, and the ugly to give a balanced assessment of where we stand moving into 2026. This means continued attention to the ongoing tension between extreme monetary policies (aka excessive money printing) and the potential for forces of economic gravity — a tension between two opposing schools of economics, the Austrians and the Keynesians.

The ongoing question we face is whether the next event, whenever it comes along, will be a typical cyclical downturn, caused by recessions that arrive to cleanse excesses (and where the correct response is to ride through to recovery), or whether a structural event unfolds (problems deep in economic engine rooms that require deep fixes).

The latter remains an ongoing risk since the GFC, which was met by extreme money printing and monetary policies. How this tension plays out depends on many factors such as government and central bank policies, the development of dollar alternatives, geopolitics as the world de-globalises into spheres, and the adoption of technologies like blockchain. The truth is we don’t yet know. So far, the global government bond market — including US Treasuries — has been solid, and it enters 2026 in much the same condition, at least at the outset.

Why Gold Is Surging

In 2019, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quietly designated gold as a Tier 1 reserve asset. This is why central banks globally have been aggressively building gold reserves in preference to US Treasuries.

Gold year-to-end (week ending November) is up +46% in euro terms, meaning it has more than doubled in value in just three years. Since its last bear market, all paper currencies have shed more than 90% of their value against gold — the hardest and oldest currency in the world.

Silver, which is much more volatile than gold, has also advanced this year, rising from c.€28 to c.€54 per ounce.

Here’s how gold has behaved since the break from the Gold Standard in the early 1970s, which was followed by over ten years of high inflation before a prolonged bear market in gold to 1999. The dollar is shown in purple, the euro in green. Source: World Gold Council, Washington.

There is a reason for gold’s behaviour over the past 25 years. It relates to the confluence of concerns that we may be approaching the end of a very long-term deficit-financing cycle although there are sharply differing viewpoints on this question.

On one side is the concern that governments have borrowed too much money based purely on confidence in ever-expanding tax receipts from growth. This leads to the conclusion that we are heading for a currency reset, most likely though not yet certainly involving an anchor to gold. This is a viewpoint, not a certainty.

The other viewpoint is that economies can trade their way out and that markets will “melt up” with the Fourth Industrial Revolution upon us. This involves a heady growth cocktail of accelerating and fusing technologies, physical, digital, and biological, with deep systemic impacts across society, jobs, and governance. This is grounded in artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (billions of connected devices), robotics, automation such as drones, and quantum computing powering processing speeds. The biggest physical constraint is energy, but stacked into that constraint is human innovation: hydrogen, fusion, storage, and more.

What Happens Next?

Firstly, there is nothing we can do to alter the shape of these tensions or future events, other than be aware and position accordingly. This is why I have been adding gold to client portfolios and advocating for it publicly in books, columns, and interviews for 23 years.

No one can accurately predict how long the old deficit-financing cycle can continue. Its demise has been thwarted repeatedly by global central bank interventions using extreme monetary policies. The last coordinated intervention (2020–2021) caused a visible surge in inflation, leading to losses in euro spending power, cash deposits, and many pensions of around -20%. Then came rate hikes, which hurt the government bond market, shaving an average of -15% off values, only now slowly clawing back as rates are cut at a snail’s pace in the USA.

Fed rate cuts are likely to continue into 2026 and 2027, which would ordinarily rally bond markets. Except that markets are now charging higher premiums to nations issuing new debt.

The Year Just Ending

Last week, the US Federal Reserve cut US rates for the third time this year by -0.25%, bringing rates to 3.5%–3.75%. It has been a rapid-paced year, accelerated by Trump’s Liberation Day on April 2nd and followed by his “Big Beautiful Bill”. Meanwhile, Europe whose political landscape is changing fast has committed to large-scale defence and infrastructure spending.

What’s clear is that in the twilight of the year, overall risk levels have settled into a kind of new normal, lower risk than expected in the first half of the year. The peace conference in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict surprised hardened observers and has added to confidence that the US government has regained its footing.

The overarching economic question is whether we are seeing a sustainable revival of the Colossus (USA) under a politically strong US president. The frank answer is that we don’t yet know, this will take time to reveal itself, but we can examine early signs.

Let’s not lose sight of the big macro picture. Global debt levels have reached historic highs, surpassing $300 trillion by mid-2025 (Institute of International Finance data), equating to 3.3x global GDP versus about 2.5x pre-Covid. US debt-to-GDP stands at 123%, Japan at 252%, and Italy at 140%. This compares to average global national debt-to-GDP of around 70% before the GFC. Studies such as Reinhart-Rogoff show that debt above 90% in advanced economies slows economic growth.

On its current trajectory, US debt would reach 180% by 2050. Clearly unsustainable if confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency is to be maintained. Governments can change this trajectory, but doing so is politically fraught. Reining in spending and cutting taxes can strengthen economic engine rooms but meets popular resistance, so expect a bumpy ride, particularly in less enterprise-led economies.

The risk of an all-out crash is low, barring contagion from a spectacular event. Mid-sized debt crises across economies are inevitable. For now, attention should focus on the behemoths: the USA, China, and Japan.

The key US 10-year bond yield, a thermometer for the Treasury market, declined from 4.57% at the start of the year to around 4.1% today. That is positive. The journey was not smooth, with yield spikes as markets digested Trump’s tariffs and reassessed appetite for US dollars as a reserve currency. Importantly, the yield decline is not purely about confidence; it also reflects recession risks anticipated for 2026–2027, encouraging flows into defensive assets like US bonds.

Gold, meanwhile, has advanced 64% in US dollar terms this year. Central banks continue to build gold reserves as part of the global de-dollarisation trend, which is unlikely to cool soon.

The year began with the euro-dollar at 1.035, moving to 1.175 as the US currency softened across majors. This may partially reverse next year, typical of post-weak-dollar cycles.

It is too early to say whether Trump’s tariffs are a panacea. They are a major gamble, not only on how the US economy responds, but on global trade reactions. Tariff revenues surged, but at the cost of uncertainty, which dampens business investment, fuels inflationary pressures, and risks rekindling trade wars. Some believe this will settle down; perhaps so, but no prudent investor would bet the house on it.

Europe initially faced 20% tariffs and responded through retaliation, diversification, and negotiation, while also stepping up commitments to the Ukraine-Russia war. The result is likely EU GDP growth nearer 1% rather than the earlier 1.5% forecast for 2025, with consumers showing a willingness to substitute away from US goods.

Despite policy shocks, equity markets performed strongly, though concerns about an AI bubble persist. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 21%, ahead of the S&P 500 at 17.3%, with the UK at 23% and Japan at 26%. These are remarkable figures, reflecting confidence in business performance and AI-driven profit growth as adoption accelerates.

Big Currents

Multi-decadal currents run deep beneath the surface of economics. Because they fall outside short-term timelines, they are often relegated to specialist books or fringe commentary. The classic U-shaped probability models repeatedly fail to reflect the real world’s capacity for extreme events. The modelling that drives most analysis is flawed—that is the point. Quantum computing may eventually help, but for now, accurate prediction remains elusive.

Politicians often assume they can print unlimited currency to fulfil election promises. Unchecked, they exceed sustainable debt-servicing limits, ignore fiscal warnings, and ultimately trigger currency collapse. This is historical pattern, not speculation. Many developed economies are close to or beyond sustainable debt limits. Without course correction, the trajectory ends in crisis, beginning with runaway inflation from renewed money printing.

We don’t yet know the timing, but it appears we are witnessing the decline of the old order of unanchored developed-economy currencies. This partly explains gold’s surge as a superior reserve asset relative to developed-country government bonds, and the view that it will play a leading role in the next currency reset, the last being Bretton Woods after WWII. Gold now exceeds US dollar and euro reserves in central bank holdings.

The key stress point is when rising debt no longer translates into growth because productivity collapses and real wages decline. This feedback loop worsens when government spending is swallowed by debt servicing and welfare, suffocating enterprise. Unless halted by strong leadership, confidence in the currency eventually collapses. Central banks understand this, hence their gold accumulation, and so should we.

This is likely to be a slow, gradual process rather than a cinematic collapse. The US dollar will probably remain the world’s reserve currency for some time, but its dominance will wane, alongside the yen and euro, as we move toward a fusion of gold and digital currencies, the latter acting as decentralised transmission systems.

What to Watch in 2026

Europe

The UK and France sit near the threshold of sustainable debt financing, while Germany struggles with energy affordability for its industrial base. Each requires new national plans and governments with clear mandates.

USA

Watch whether rate cuts fail to correspond with falling bond yields. Weak bond auctions would ripple through mortgages, corporate bonds, collateral markets, and FX.

Japan

For decades, investors have borrowed cheaply in yen to fund higher-yielding assets elsewhere, the “carry trade”. If the US dollar weakens sharply beyond 160–180 JPY, this trade could unwind, prompting large-scale selling of foreign bonds by Japanese investors.

China

Still a conundrum managed through rigid centralisation by the CCP, China sits atop vast unsustainable property debt, up to $11 trillion held by local governments. The CCP’s ambition for 75% urbanisation by 2035 collides with the need to deflate this bubble, echoing Japan’s experience. A major default risks currency crisis and internal unrest, with global spillovers via collapsing commodity prices and a surging US dollar.

What Could Go Wrong?

The base case is a slow puncture before a reset. While views differ on timing and mechanics, all agree financial systems are born, mature, and decline. Nothing lasts forever. The advantage today is foresight and preparation, hence central bank gold accumulation and open debate among banking, commodity, and crypto experts.

Next year, watch the US 10-year yield closely. If it moves counter to expected Fed cuts and surges, it could trigger renewed money printing. So far, the 10-year has weathered Trump’s Rose Garden lunge and stabilised around 4%. That does not yet signal stress in core government debt markets. I suspect bond trouble will emerge elsewhere first, reinforcing US Treasuries and eventually gold as safe havens. We shall see.

Finally, here is a steady, clear-eyed, and moderate Austrian economist, Daniel Lacalle, offering a balanced look into 2026:

I wish you and yours a happy and peaceful New YEar.

Eddie Hobbs

Watch here.

Una McGurk Senior Counsel joined me to unpack this 16-page document that exposes what appears to be corruption at the highest levels of our health system.

The evidence is shocking:

- Midazolam administration in nursing homes perfectly correlates with death spikes in April 2020

- PCR tests were run at "totally ludicrous" 45 cycle thresholds, creating false positives

- Irish regulators failed to conduct proper safety testing on mRNA vaccines

- No carcinogenicity or genotoxicity studies were performed

- 23,000 excess deaths in Ireland since January 2021 that cannot be explained

The pharmacist has been warning regulators for 4 YEARS with no response. Now they've gone nuclear with this protected disclosure that could trigger criminal investigations.

This is a must-watch for anyone who cares about accountability, medical ethics, and understanding what really happened during COVID.

Here's my take:

Since 2012, I've been exposing how our sovereignty has been surrendered. First to the Troika, then to globalist NGOs, and now to the EU migration pact.

Our current President has made just ONE Supreme Court referral in 14 years.

He stood silent during COVID when the state trampled our rights with propaganda and division.

The Irish Deep State has captured our media and institutions, turning us into a petri dish for the WEF's "stakeholder capitalism."

We're now facing the construction of a digital control grid with:

• Carbon limits

• Border surrender

• Vaccine passports

• Programmable currency

The next President MUST protect our Constitution and stand against state overreach, not be another EU or Deep State clone who stays silent while our nation is dismantled.

Choose freedom, not the digital gulag.

The future of Ireland, OUR future, depends on it.

Eddie

You are waking up to war on Iran as the USA overnight bombed its nuclear manufacturing assets.

It is likely this is the beginning of a wider conflict.

On Friday last, I finished an interview with US Colonel Douglas McGregor who precisely predicted this outcome, calling the two week window a contrived lie.  

Watch the full interview by clicking here.

Watch the full interview by clicking here.

This was released on YouTube at 5am on Sunday, June 22nd. 

Colonel McGregor who is an accomplished author and described as brilliant and blunt said an awful lot more as I took him through the geopolitical realties around the Russian Ukraine war as well.

It is full of points that fly in the face of prevailing propaganda-driven coverage. 

Eddie 

When the elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.

— East African Proverb

Right on cue the long-expected bust-up between two huge egos, Musk and Trump, is unfolding, but look past the blizzard of coverage, and the underlying issue is, in fact, THE issue of these times. This is the trajectory of the USA, its debt, treasuries and the dollar, in other words, US solvency. Why that matters for all of us is because these interconnections are the backstop to the entire global financial system, and that includes the safety of your bank deposits, securities, pensions and money in transmission – the whole pot. In this mid-year review I get straight into the heart of it and put in juxtaposition safe havens, Bitcoin and gold.

I’ve taken a cautious stance since Trump’s inauguration pending the outcome of his first 100 days and extended the moratorium after his dramatic lunge from the Rose Garden on April 2nd, since which he’s been forced to row back on his dictats to the global economy. This is because of how the interconnection between US debt, dollars and bonds relates to the global financial system, which it anchors.

The purpose of this mid-year review is to look over the state of play now that events have moved on since the lunge and since markets have responded.

Long-term regular readers will know that I’ve been closely tracking the global financial system ever since it blew up in 2008. The end of my third last book, The Pivot in 2017, asked if Keynesian economics (which during slumps promotes vast money printing even if in excess of economic growth) would be the most dangerous doctrine carried forward from the 20th century. It isn’t. Twenty-first-century totalitarianism is more dangerous and is the subject of my current book, but it remains a close second!

The vulnerability of the financial system itself has become the hottest financial topic underpinning an explosion in reports, books, videos and politics as debt once again raced ahead of economic growth because of lockdown.

In the most recent bulletins, I’ve endeavoured to explain why this fear of inevitable insolvency is the driver behind Trump’s strategy to avoid the fate of the world reserve currency issuer, as heralded by Belgium-born economist Robert Triffin, hence the term the Triffin Curse. It is why he’s attempting to rebalance world trade through unilateral strong-arm tactics to force burden sharing on all nations. The objective is understandable; the route to achieving it is a very poor choice when compared to alternatives like a multilateral round table agreement between all partners in a new type of Bretton Woods reset. Trump instead chose to bully first, negotiate with mutual respect second, and in doing so has made the USA weaker, not stronger.

Markets have spoken, and Trump, after just two months, is in TACO mode, retreating from his bluster in the Rose Garden on April 2nd. TACO is a rather unfair summary of his negotiation style and is shorthand for Trump Always Chickens Out. This report goes straight to the heart of the underlying question based on what we now know in mid-2025, acknowledging that debt levels are highly elevated but questioning the timing of how we transition from the old debt-financed cycle to that needed to fuel the new industrial and service revolution as AI enters the field, to be followed by quantum computers and energy innovations needed to support the economic expansion it will bring.

There will be momentous change, but I believe it will be transitional and not some Hollywood moment of high drama, the stuff of a crowded field of writers and influencers selling videos, books and subscription services. Here I outline the transitional arguments and why the death of Bonds is overstated.

Why a US Bond Crisis is Not Imminent

There isn’t an alternative. Not yet. It is why the U.S. bond market remains strong due to consistent global demand for its Treasuries, which are still viewed as the safest and most liquid assets globally. Remember, as stated earlier, bonds act as the backstop to the whole pot, the global banking system itself, and the safety of your capital in banks or in transmission through global banking conduits; the same applies to securities, equities, commodities, credit and trade. The government bond market is the backstop, and US Treasuries are the anchor. Keep in mind that both US Treasuries and gold are still ranked by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) as Tier One reserve assets to offset bank runs.

This hasn’t stopped a clatter of speculation about the BRICS multi-currency platform, a federated Eurozone bond market and cryptocurrency arriving as cavalry, all of which have considerable drawbacks at present, drawbacks largely understated in fairy godmother solutions. There isn’t an alternative to the present system, not yet.

Despite rising yields for US bonds exacerbated by Trump's gambit, for example, the 10-year Treasury yield has bobbed around 4.0%-4.75% this year, but foreign investors, including central banks, continue to hold U.S. debt. Remember, when yields rise, the market value of existing bonds falls. Today’s ten-year is hovering at 4.3%, down from a recent peak of 4.6%. The dollar's role as the world’s reserve currency is reinforced by its use in over 88% of global transactions (SWIFT data) and its dominance in foreign exchange reserves (59% of global reserves per IMF). No viable alternative currency like the yuan or euro matches the dollar’s liquidity or stability.

Since the Rose Garden shock, there is mixed evidence of softness for new issues of US debt, with successful launches of 10- and 30-year bonds in April but lower cover of 20-year bonds in May. Trump is highly sensitive to markets barking at him; his retreat to 90-day moratoriums on unilateral US tariffs followed immediately after bond yield spikes.

I’ve started year-beginning analysis restating the virtuous circle of support for the US economy, notwithstanding the manifestly difficult social and political downsides of the USA. This is evident in the graphic below showing the long-term impact of US economic pre-eminence in enterprise stimulation versus Europe – with thanks to Andrew McAfee of MIT.

The U.S. economy demonstrates resilience, with GDP growth projected at 2.5-3% for 2025 (IMF and Federal Reserve estimates), driven by consumer spending, tech innovation, and energy independence. Don’t be surprised, however, if the huge uncertainty caused by Trump's mercurial lunge peels back growth this year to sub 2% for the USA. Global growth is also likely to be chipped away depending on how TACO tactics unfold over the coming months.

Global growth was expected to continue at 3.2% (IMF 2025 forecast), supported by recovering supply chains, stabilising commodity prices, and growth in emerging markets like India and ASEAN nations. The U.S. bond market benefits directly from this stability, as manageable inflation (around 2-3%) and Federal Reserve policy adjustments prevent a crisis scenario, while global growth supports demand for dollar assets.

The U.S. benefits from deep, liquid capital markets and robust institutions, including an independent Federal Reserve, and despite all the political noise, it has a stable legal system. This underpins confidence in U.S. bonds and the dollar, even amidst fiscal concerns with the debt-to-GDP ratio hovering around 120%. The absence of a credible global alternative financial system ensures that any shift away from the dollar would be gradual, not catastrophic, in my opinion.

US Treasuries give reliable income, with current yields around 4.3% for 10-year bonds, providing a strong basis for portfolio diversification. Despite all the financial media noise, foreign holders have increased their holdings more than domestic buyers since the November 2024 presidential election through the end of Q1 2025, countering concerns of foreign investors "going on strike". This is evidenced by normal auction demand, with bid-to-cover ratios and slightly weaker but orderly longer-term bond auctions, indicating reasonable overall demand.

Bid/ask spreads in US Treasury auctions suggest stability, and there is the potential for regulatory changes, like unlocking additional capacity for financial institutions to hold more Treasuries. Despite a Moody’s downgrade in early 2025, the market impact was minimal. Looking at the USA in isolation is an error; however, sovereign bond yields globally have risen because elevated debt isn’t purely a US concern but a broader market one. You’ll see here the rise globally in bond yields as markets repriced risk.

The US Treasury market has deepest liquidity, averaging $900 billion in daily transactions, but sometimes with high volume days reaching $1.5 trillion, this compares to $4 trillion in daily REPO financing between banks.

So at least for the time being research suggests the US bond market is stable, with strong demand for Treasuries and normal market functioning and that the US dollar will remain the world reserve currency, given its liquidity and lack of viable alternatives. Although the US economy is currently weakening from Trump’s manufactured uncertainty, the prevailing evidence leans toward global growth persisting, supported by US economic resilience and developing market recovery.

Other Voices

Here I look at counternarrative voices, including Ray Dalio, whom we’ve mentioned before, the highly published head of Bridgewater whose current book deals exclusively with the history and dynamics of national debt crises. Dalio warns of an imminent US bond market crisis due to growing debt, predicting a crisis within three years. Those predicting crises usually focus on three interrelated concerns: the stability of the US bond market, the dollar's status as the world reserve currency, and the persistence of global economic growth.

Dalio has warned that the US deficit, projected at 7.2% of GDP, must be reduced to 3% to avoid a supply-demand imbalance for debt. He likened the situation to a patient with a serious medical condition, predicting a crisis within three years. Dalio also compares the current scenario to historical events like the 1930s, suggesting a potential "death spiral" of rising interest rates and economic instability. You can expect Musk to chime in.

Dalio also predicted a depression in 1981-82 that did not occur, and his warnings over the last decade have not materialised. The US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, used in over 88% of global transactions, continues to attract global demand for US Treasuries, keeping borrowing costs low. Recent Treasury auctions indicate reasonable demand, with normal bid-to-cover ratios and orderly market functioning.

Moody's downgraded the US debt rating in early 2025, citing concerns about the country's fiscal trajectory. The downgrade reflects high debt levels and rising debt service costs. This has been interpreted as a warning that the US's fiscal health is deteriorating, potentially leading to higher borrowing costs and market instability.

While the downgrade is significant, it does not signal an imminent crisis. The US has been downgraded before, such as by S&P in 2011, without triggering a bond market collapse. The downgrade reflects long-term concerns rather than an acute threat, as current economic indicators show stability. Global demand for US Treasuries remains strong, with recent auctions showing normal bid-to-cover ratios, suggesting the market continues to function normally. The argument is that the US can manage its debt through gradual adjustments and economic growth, delaying any potential crisis, making the timing of a liquidity or solvency crisis not imminent.

Some bond market participants have expressed unease about the sustainability of US deficits, pointing to signs of weakening demand at Treasury auctions and rising yields. A 20-year bond auction in May 2025 had the lowest demand since February, with investors seeking higher yields, indicating they want to be paid more for lending to the US. Rising 10-year Treasury yields and 30-year yields suggest investors are pricing in higher risk, potentially foreshadowing a crisis if deficits continue, but remember upward pressure on bond yields is a global phenomenon.

The recent volatility in the bond market, including rising yields and weaker auction demand, appears to be driven by temporary factors such as trade tensions and political uncertainty rather than fundamental shifts in the market's health.

Historical data shows that bond markets can experience short-term turbulence without leading to a crisis. This happened, for example, in the 2020 "dash for cash" episode, which recovered quickly with central bank intervention.

In summary the opposing views from Ray Dalio, Moody's, and bond market participants highlight valid concerns about the US's fiscal health and the sustainability of its debt-to-GDP trajectory. However, these views appear to overestimate the immediacy of the risks. Dalio's predictions have been historically premature, Moody's downgrade reflects long-term concerns rather than an acute threat, and bond market volatility appears temporary rather than systemic. The US economy remains resilient, with strong global demand for US Treasuries and the dollar's continued dominance as the world's reserve currency. In conclusion, a US bond market crisis or loss of dollar reserve status is not imminent in 2025, and the timing of a liquidity or solvency crisis appears to be overstated.

Why is Gold Rising?

Gold, which has advanced over tenfold since the early noughties and remains a vital asset in diversified portfolios, has become a hot topic due to its most recent surge and against the backdrop of elevated global debt. This is perfectly understandable.

Central banks buy gold for diversification, inflation hedging, and as a safe haven, and they have topped up their total gold inventories by about 10% since 2020. The question I routinely ask is if the evidence leans toward Gold being more likely than Bitcoin to feature in future currencies, given its stability and history?

Central banks buy gold mainly to diversify their reserves, protect against inflation, and act as a safe asset during economic uncertainty. Gold’s finite supply and lack of credit risk make it a trusted component of reserves, especially amid geopolitical tensions.

Since 2020, central banks have likely bought about 3,783 tonnes of gold, with significant recent purchases based on recent data from the World Gold Council.

Gold, with its long history and central bank backing, seems more likely to remain part of future monetary systems, while Bitcoin, though gaining traction, faces volatility and regulatory challenges, making its role as a currency uncertain.

Central banks hold gold as a critical component of their reserves, accounting for about a fifth of all gold ever mined. Their buying trends have intensified since 2020, driven by economic stimulus, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. Meanwhile, the debate over future currencies pits traditional assets like gold against emerging digital currencies like Bitcoin, each with distinct advantages and challenges.

Gold reduces reliance on other currencies, particularly the US dollar, which can fluctuate based on economic conditions. It is seen as a store of value during inflationary periods, and its finite supply makes it a natural hedge, especially when monetary policies lead to currency devaluation.

During economic or geopolitical turmoil, gold serves as a safe asset with no credit or counterparty risks. Tensions, such as sanctions on Russia, have driven banks to boost gold holdings for stability and to reduce the risk of appropriation by geopolitical opponents.

Recent years have seen increased gold buying due to trade disputes and a de-dollarisation trend. This suggests that gold’s safe-haven status is the primary driver and not a loss of confidence in the dollar, at least for the moment. These factors are supported by data from the World Gold Council, showing consistent net buying since 2010, with a surge post-2020.

Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2020, with the following annual figures based on World Gold Council reports and other sources:

In 2020 purchases were 273 tonnes, as per the World Gold Council’s 2020 Gold Demand Trends; this was followed in 2021 with 450 tonnes and in 2022 with 1,136 tonnes. In 2023 demand hardly cooled at 1,037 tonnes, falling back to 887 tonnes last year. Below are the 2023 total gold reserves held by major countries.

Gold has been a cornerstone of monetary systems for centuries, with central banks holding over 35,000 tonnes globally. Its stability, universal recognition, and role in reserves suggest it will likely remain relevant. Gold’s historical performance during crises makes it a candidate for backing digital or stable currencies. While a return to the gold standard is unlikely, gold could feature in reserve-backed digital currencies, given its current 20% share of central bank reserves.

Bitcoin, launched in 2009, is often called “digital gold” due to its capped supply of 21 million coins. However, its volatility, regulatory uncertainties, and limited adoption as a medium of exchange pose challenges. Bitcoin appeals to investors seeking high returns, but its role as a currency is speculative, with scalability and energy concerns.

It is unfair but coldly accurate to compare gold and BTC, especially given the zealotry with which crypto investors advocate online for ‘digital gold’. The truth is that crypto in general exists in an unregulated marketplace with significant suspicions about pumping and dumping, false accounting of transactions, theft and straightforward fraud. Tether, a company registered in the British Virgin Islands, may be linked to the failure of El Salvador to mandate Bitcoin as legal tender through its Chivo Wallet, which has been rejected by over 90% of Salvadorans.

In December the IMF approved a $1.4bn loan to El Salvador conditional on reducing its Bitcoin ambitions. An allegation has been made that El Salvador’s Bitcoin haul was not purchased but parked in its account by Tether, which, if verified, will lead to a crisis in confidence in this major crypto player. What’s noteworthy is that institutions who rushed into crypto with funds (ETFs) to lessen investor risk are in 2025 retreating based on large net capital outflows.

Gold’s long history and central bank backing make it more likely to feature in future monetary systems, especially in stablecoin or digital currency frameworks. Bitcoin, while innovative, faces hurdles, especially in volatility and risks. Since BTC challenges nation states' control of monetary power through decentralisation, it faces significant regulatory hurdles, reducing its near-term likelihood as a currency.

In conclusion, use gold as a diversifier and BTC for a highly speculative play, knowing that most of its value could vanish in a perfect storm or that it is destined to be regulated into mediocrity.

Until next time,

Eddie

PS: For regulatory reasons investment and financial advice cannot take place outside a regulatory process. Should you ever wish to engage, contact me here.

The presentation covered much ground with video clips from experts interviewed on Counterpoint but with a special focus on when, how and who sold out Ireland to stakeholder capitalism, subverting Irish democracy by stealth.

A raise of hands flagged only 15% had even heard of UN SDGs, the instrument advanced by Irish UN officials under which we are ruled from above.

If you haven't already done so, can you add 1215 to your profile on X, Facebook, Instagram or elsewhere to signal that you reject totalitarianism and cherish freedom? It's a small thing, but its growth has a multiplier effect to say ENOUGH, ENOUGH.

While we met, matters were unfolding elsewhere because of the start of a contagion in bond markets, which I explain here as best I can so you can pass it around.

Trump’s Reversal

At the Rose Garden on April 2nd, Trump administered an enforceable economic command to the rest of the world, since which markets have been all over the shop and will be until more hard data and certainty take hold.

Overnight the big beast, the bond market, gave its verdict, and Trump blinked.

He didn't have much choice because the stability of the global financial system and its banks, including your deposits, was coming into play.

The result, a 90-day reprieve on tariffs, is another arbitrary pronouncement, and while helpful in averting a crisis, it still leaves the legacy of Trump's lunge and his erratic behaviour as the most lasting impact.

Our recent 1215 bulletins covered the logical direction of his choice of a Big Bang and where which would take us, essentially into stagflation, with very low or negative growth (temporary recession) and higher inflation.

That was the best-case scenario; at worst, it could have triggered a global financial crisis if the bond market mothership, US treasuries, got sold off.

But we are not in a prescribed outcome; this is because of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

This law always applies when some authority attempts to command economic outcomes or impose its will on markets.

It is why I wrote the letters to Trump to explain it plainly – see attachment.

This is already starkly evident across a range of metrics.

Uncertainty is the enemy of reason, and no one knew if Trump’s gamble would work or how it might work, and because he is entirely unreliable, promises made one day can be reversed the next.

It is that mercurial behaviour that mitigates against consumer, business, and nation’s confidence in anything he commands, that he has set the Oval Office up like a TV studio with a daily episode worsened by the Zelenskyy treatment and followed by callow visits from a host of supplicant prime ministers, including a bowl of shamrocks from ours. 

Throughout the world, decisions are on hold everywhere, not just in boardrooms still undertaking studies trying to figure out bottom lines within hugely complex global supply chains from the US tariffs.

It also includes nations trying to assess what to do and how it will impact revenues and taxes upon their people; then there’s the individual consumer uncertainty.

Ask yourself if you were about to buy your home for your young family near the Pfizer plant in Ringaskiddy, County Cork, would you delay for fear of losing your pharma job there?

Be clear: job losses were coming and only now are on hold pending the outcome of the next phase.

This is not an environment where businesses will decide on major investments; the point is that much of the damage is already done.

These micro-decisions are being made everywhere in the world all at once, and reliable economic data points have not yet caught up.

Until that catch-up flows through in data and will take several weeks yet, we must rely on economic first principles and past history to assess the outcome on this path and its off-ramps.

After just one week, Trump’s gamble was beginning to get into early trouble.

Firstly, on the political side, major billionaire backers were already yelling, and if the USA tiptoes towards a recession, even if short and shallow, the whole political calculus will shift to a headwind because it takes at least a year to wear off a recession, and that puts its nasty political effect smack into the mid-term elections of 2026.

MAGA’s who lose their jobs will quickly put their red caps into the car boot if that happens.

Secondly, financial markets being forward-looking are in high volatility because of the uncertainty of the outcome and the absence of meaningful data, as no one knew if the tariffs, even if paused, are a negotiation point or a coercion, in other words, a cliff fall.

It is a small wonder that stock markets are displaying erratic movement but have been sharply down, and in the background, credit markets then caught the contagion of uncertainty.

Over the past day the US Treasury market bond yields spiked because of selling to cover speculation losses.

This marks the capitulation of huge multi-trillion-dollar positions betting on the spread between US bonds and the futures market. Bets you can buy (using borrowed money) on the gap between the real market and the imagined future one.

This too will pass, but not its knock-on stress if it whipsaws into bank stability, which was en route to manifest in sharp falls in bank shares everywhere.

Everything is interconnected, and you can be pretty sure Trump took some extremely serious phone calls from global bank stability experts like those from the Financial Stability Board, the Fed and US regulators, each seeing the same outcome if he persisted with his intransigence in denying basic economic science.

We have been here before – government bonds are the backstop to the entire global financial system, and US bonds are the mothership.

It is why Democrat advisor James Carville once famously quipped about his next life,

“I would like to come back as the Bond Market. You can intimidate everybody.”

The US Fed would have been forced to intervene, essentially to save Trump 2.0, and if that happened, it could well have been Trump's Liz Truss moment.

It is why everyone fears bond markets, the world's creditors, essentially.

If there’s any chance of another bank contagion, global central banks would turn on the printing presses all over again but next time only save banks of systemic importance.

For the moment, government bonds will remain the safe haven for capital flows on the truism that, although bank runs can cause closures, major governments never close; they just raise more taxes.

This extraordinary period could not continue for too long before Trump blinked under political and bond market pressure in his sprint to a moment when the rest of the world would bend the knee.  

Needless to say, I will continue to issue bulletins as events unfold and to delve beneath the surface coverage in mainstream news.

If you’d like to go into more detail or undertake an overall strategic review, you can contact my financial firm Hobbs Financial Practice Ltd at +353 (45) 409354 or eddie@eddiehobbs.com.

Until next time,

Eddie

The first below is an imaginary letter to President Donald Trump, written as if jointly penned by three deceased masters in Economics, Ludwig von Mises, (Sept 29th 1881-10th Oct 1973) Friedrich Hayek, (May 8th 1899-March 23rd 1992) and Henry Hazlitt (November 28th 1894 -July 9th 1993).

The second letter is a response by Robert E Lighthizer, who appears to be Trump’s Tariff Tsar and, evidently, father to the strategy, but it could have just as easily been penned in a different tone by John Maynard Keynes (June 5th 1883-April 21st 1946) who believed in temporary tariffs but to assist in resolving deficit crises.

I give my own conclusion at the end of the exercise.

What is yours?

Letter One of Two

April 2025

Donald J Trump
President of the United States (Emeritus)
Mar-a-Lago
Palm Beach, FL 33480

Dear President Trump,

As devotees of the principles of economics and a free society, we find your approach gravely misguided. Far from liberating the American people, your tariffs will erect barriers to prosperity, freedom, and reason; thus your course, if unaltered, will harm the nation you champion.

Tariffs are not tools of liberation but instruments of coercion. They distort the market’s natural order, which, as Hayek has shown, emerges impulsively from countless individual choices, not from the edicts of a single authority. Tariffs override the voluntary exchanges essential to wealth creation, forcing consumers to pay more and producers to misallocate resources. US economic and geopolitical power, even if applied temporarily to enforce renegotiation of trade, is blind to the mechanics of the global marketplace and its complex interdependencies in a myriad of supply chains that reach deep into all US domestic marketplaces. One cannot reverse this by fiat without causing great harm to the USA and to the rest of the world.

Here there is no path to greatness; it is instead a descent into fallacy. Mises’s work demonstrates that such interventions defy the logic of human action in the attempt to substitute it with your central planner’s whim for all manufacturing to be bounded within your geographical borders. This cannot substitute the price-setting machinery and wisdom of the market, which means the results will put the USA in jeopardy as it seeks to alienate itself. Hazlitt’s pragmatic lesson rings clear: you see the jobs ‘saved’ in protected industries, but you ignore the unseen losses—this is crucial; in other words, the higher costs for families, disabled exporters and a weakened global trade network, one rallying against and hostile to the USA. Your tariffs may have initial political benefits in creating a domestic victim narrative to rally the uninformed, but it cannot long last before the public, burdened by stagflation, see through it.

Your ‘Liberation Day’ is a paradox. Liberation implies freedom, yet tariffs bind the hands of entrepreneurs and consumers alike. Mises long argued that true economic strength lies in open markets, where individuals, not governments, determine what is produced and traded. Your policy, by contrast, empowers your team to pick winners and losers—a step towards the centralised control that Hayek warns inevitably leads to serfdom. We ask: how can a nation be liberated by shackling its citizens to artificial prices and diminished choices? The irony is stark; the consequences will be sterner still.

You impose tariffs to punish foreign barriers or protect domestic firms, yet the retaliation—already evident in past trade wars—slashes American exports. Farmers, manufacturers, and workers in open industries suffer, their livelihoods sacrificed for a mirage of self-sufficiency. The consumer, too, bears the burden: every dollar spent on pricier goods is a dollar lost to other pursuits. This is not wealth creation but wealth destruction, a lesson history has taught from Smoot-Hawley’s folly in June 1930, which raised historically high tariffs on 20,000 imported goods. Recall that despite more than a thousand economists’ petitioning President Hoover not to sign, he did so under domestic political pressure and lived to regret the trade war that it triggered, deepening the Great Depression.

We recognise your intent—to buttress America—but intent cannot rewrite economic law. Mises’ critique of socialism applies here: no leader, however astute, can calculate the multitudinous needs of a nation better than the market’s price signals. Tariffs, like all interventions, breed inefficiency and invite corruption, as vested interests clamour for favour. Hayek’s insight cuts deeper: such policies erode liberty itself, granting the state powers that, once taken, are rarely relinquished. What begins as a tariff today may end as a nasty burden tomorrow, the very totalitarian impulse that you rail against.

Abandon this course. Dismantle the tariffs, not in part but in full, and embrace unilateral free trade by negotiation, not by fiat. Let America lead by example, as Hazlitt urged, showing the world that prosperity flows from openness, not isolation. If others persist in their folly, their loss is our gain—our firms will outcompete, our consumers will thrive. Mises would insist that only a free market aligns production with human desires; Hayek would add that only such a system preserves the freedom you claim to defend.

Together we beseech you to reconsider your 'Liberation Day' not as a triumph of tariffs but as a chance to unleash the true potential of a free people. The correct path lies not in walls but in bridges—bridges of trade, choice, and reason.

Yours in the cause of Liberty and Truth.

Ludwig von Mises
Friedrich A. Hayek
Henry Hazlitt

Letter Two of Two

Dear Messrs Mises, Hayek, and Hazlitt,

The arguments in your open letter, while elegant in theory, fail in the face of practical reality and the urgent needs of the American people. Your insistence on unilateral free trade assumes a world of honest players, but that world does not exist. Tariffs are not shackles but a shield—a necessary defence against a world that does not play by the free-market rules you espouse.

You decry tariffs as distortions of the market, yet the global economy is already distorted—not by our actions but by those of our rivals. China subsidises its industries, manipulates its currency and dumps goods below cost, hollowing out American manufacturing. Other nations erect barriers while we preach openness, leaving our workers and communities to bear the cost. 'Liberation Day' is correctly named: it marks our freedom from this one-sided game, restoring fairness and strength to a nation too long exploited by naive faith in unfettered trade.

Mises, you claim prices should guide us, yet foreign mercantilism rigs those prices against us. Hayek, you warn of centralised power, but what of the power wielded by Beijing’s planners or Europe’s bureaucrats, who thrive while we cling to your spontaneous order? Hazlitt, you speak of unseen losses, but I see them plainly: shuttered factories, lost jobs and rusting towns—casualties of your dogma that cheap imports enrich us all by freeing up spending elsewhere. The seen benefits of tariffs—revived steel mills, growing factories—are not illusions but lifelines to millions.

Let’s talk numbers, not theories. Since Trump’s tariffs began in 2018, US manufacturing added jobs—over 400,000 by 2020, before the pandemic hit. Steel and aluminium tariffs brought production back home. Yes, consumers pay more for some goods, but the cost is dwarfed by the gain: a stronger industrial base, less dependence on hostile powers, and a workforce with dignity restored. Retaliation, you say? China’s exports to us dwarf ours to them—our leverage is real, and they’ve blinked before.

You call tariffs coercion, but I call them negotiation. Reciprocal tariffs, as Trump proposes, force others to the table. When we match their rates—or threaten to—they lower barriers, as Mexico and Canada did. This isn’t a slippery slope to serfdom; it’s a pragmatic push for mutual openness. And if they don’t budge, we still win—our industries grow, our security strengthens. Your alternative invites predation, not prosperity.

Economics isn’t a parlour game of logic; it’s a tool for national survival. You ignore the strategic imperative: a country that can’t make its own steel or chips isn’t free—it’s vulnerable. “Liberation Day” isn’t about isolating America but about reclaiming our ability to stand tall in a tough world. Your market utopia might work in a textbook, but here, in 2025, we face real threats—long supply chains, geopolitical rivals and a middle class desperate for hope. Tariffs aren’t the problem; they’re the solution.

I urge President Trump to stay the course. Double down on tariffs where they work—targeting cheaters, especially like China—and use them to pry open markets elsewhere. The American people do not need lectures on liberty; they need jobs, security, and a future. Your principles are noble, but they are out of touch. Liberation is not free trade at all costs—it is the power to chart our own destiny.

Yours sincerely,

Robert E Lighthizer

Conclusion

Trump’s tariff shock, even if temporarily applied to force renegotiation of trade by bending the knees of the rest of the world, will have unintended consequences, none of them good. You cannot surrogate the multitudinous mechanics of trade at individual level with centralised command not without causing great harm to general economic prosperity. The shock does not reflect US strength but rather signals weakness and, if mishandled, will accelerate the timeline to the relative decline of the Colossus.

Until next time,
Eddie Hobbs

As the first quarter of 2025 ends, much is happening across various vectors, both locally and globally, that feeds into the background omni-war between the forces of totalitarianism and freedom.

It is for this reason, and the abject silence in Irish mainstream media on these matters, that I started FREE open public talks.

In our support group, we call it Ground Hurling!

The first of these had very high engagement.

It was held at the Radisson Hotel Little Island, Cork, on March 20th.

About 650 attended the Meet and Greet at 6pm.

The presentation ran from 7pm to past 9 pm, followed by Q&A, after which I stayed around to talk to anyone who came forward until 11 pm.

This is repeating at the City North Hotel off the M1 above Dublin Airport on Wednesday April 9th.

Please do come to support if you can, say hello to kindred spirits and build community.

There are no tickets required; entrance is free, and I’ll be there from 6pm.

Meanwhile, in response to what is now unfolding as Trump’s major tariff deadline approaches, I outline below a potential banana skin if the super-cooling of the US economy gives way to a combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation, known in the trade as Stagflation.

This is not a given, but it is serious enough to warrant a bulletin of its own.

Why it’s important is that it may hasten a tactical shift by Trump if his calculus starts to indicate an inbound recession greater and more damaging than the short and shallow type gamed out by his team in their tariff wars.

If that happens, the mood music may shift to a multilateral agreement to devalue the US dollar. Here’s my take on Stagflation.

Stagflation Risk: What Does It Mean and How Do I Position?

Our last bulletin on the Triffin Curse, I endeavoured to understand what is driving the Trump 2.0 administration, looking past the pearl-clutching, ad hominem attacks and barstool analysis from most of the Irish media.

In it, there is an argument that he applies tariffs as step one in a two-step process towards a multilateral international accord to devalue the US dollar and thereafter burden-share with the USA among its trading partners.

This is a knife-edge path; much has to come right because between gaming it and doing it right lies the potential for the ruination of his presidency.

Trump 2.0 is a rational actor with a specific agenda to avoid the USA’s sinking on its present course.

If it fails, we all do, which is why understanding US strategy and being prepared to burden-share is going to be important, no matter how much that means breaking bread together.

The Dark Host

Firstly, we need to revisit an old foe, Stagflation, this is stagnant economic growth, perhaps even negative growth, and inflation.

In this extended bulletin, I later outline the effect on asset classes of sustained Stagflation. This is not to say that Stagflation is inevitable, because it isn’t, but avoiding Stagflation whether short- or long-lived, now looks like it will be a near-run thing.

The combination of weakening data in the US and its uncertain White House helming is already noticeably spilling into consumer and corporate nerves about the tariffs.

This is having a chilling economic effect, but just how much will become clear over the coming months.

Financial markets, detecting the mood shift, are concerned enough to devalue companies most exposed to tariff wars.

There appears no doubt that US growth is peeling off fast, with forecasts for 2025 being downgraded across the board.

Whether this trajectory leads to recession, even if short and shallow, will remain unknown for some months, and bear in mind it is within the gift of Trump and the Fed’s cutting rates to provide relief.

Trump has to be extremely careful because even a short recession could take up to a year to claw out of, and that takes him into the mid-term elections, which means facing political backlash from unemployment rises, government workforce shrinkage and rising inflation.

The latter isn’t a given from tariffs because of offsets from dollar strength in external supply chains but it is probable, nonetheless.

The combination of growth in reverse, rising inflation and a Fed initially forced to cut rates to hold up employment is a toxic brew.

We know that driving this is the Triffin Curse, where deficits with trading partners desperate to hold US dollars eventually lead to insolvency.

Globalism, in addition to rising deficits now at post-WW2 levels in the developed world, has denuded the USA of much of its traditional industrial base.

However, some perspective is needed here, because its service sector is bigger and it has very successfully financialised its economy, giving investors a share of the action through Wall Street, far in excess of other countries.

Many times in these bulletins, the US virtuous circle of competitive advantage has been stressed, albeit at the price of a hugely unequal US society.

However, so we do not lose sight of its effects, below is a very sobering snapshot of the US enterprise pool and its equivalent for the EU, for companies worth more than $10bn.

The Draghi strategic report on the sclerotic EU ought to have bluntly stated that its chief USP is regulation.

The EU has a major task in reinventing itself if it is to compete with the US.

But US debt is on an unsustainable pathway, and Trump 2.0 knows that they have to take corrective action, otherwise the so-called bond vigilantes, who make money betting against nations’ credit, could visit the mothership, the USA.

This is no small matter, as the UK found out to its cost during the Truss lunge, a reckless move that could have caused a contagion in its financial system, pensions and gilts.

US debt servicing is eating up more and more of its revenues, equivalent to about 6% of its GDP, and shortly faces rolling over 7.5% of its bonds in credit markets as bonds mature. It is also running a $2 trillion deficit - the gap between its revenues and its expenditure.

The world’s second-largest economy, China, is in bad shape, as covered here many times.

It is ageing and struggling with a vast pool of internal debt linked to its development and reckless lending, and it is likely, it is thought, to follow the path of Japan after its destiny with excesses played out.

Europe is in better shape from a debt perspective, with France as the outlier, but has a growth problem, although Germany’s defence spending commitment and similar programmes across the EU will bring government-financed expansion.

It is also over-regulated to the point of strangling growth enterprises compared with the USA, despite its larger population and higher education.

Underneath all this are rising concerns of a bond heart attack moment causing a major player to restructure or default - that’s the Hollywood ending.

More likely is that eventually inflation will be unleashed to wipe off the excess burden by devaluing all fiat currencies and savaging bank deposits.

Remember, most excesses emanating from Central Bank extreme fiscal measures end up as someone’s asset; put together, this creates a net financial surplus, oodles of cash in banks, money markets and short-term bonds.

This is what bailed out Japan from collapse because its population was prepared to finance the burst Japanese Government with its savings.

Bond vigilantes hover over all the moves on the chess board and are now closely watching how aggressive tariffs are changing the calculus in favour of hammering a bond market to make vast fortunes, as George Soros famously did in 1992 against Sterling.

Gold’s Allure During Stagflation

Gold is still scorching.

Over the past year it has risen by more than 40% and is heading towards €3k per ounce; it had already breached this for the US Dollar at $3,024 by last Friday, March 28th.

Gold is widely regarded as a store of value which preserves purchasing power when inflation erodes the real value of paper currencies.

In Stagflation, where inflation is high and sustained, gold’s price typically rises as investors seek protection against currency devaluation.

The stagnant growth and the economic uncertainty that accompanies it heighten gold’s allure as a safe-haven asset.

Unlike equities or property, gold isn’t tied to corporate earnings or economic output, making it less vulnerable to the weak growth component of Stagflation.

It is why during periods of economic malaise and distrust in monetary policy, investors flock to gold.

The possibility of Stagflation and central bank purchases is now driving the price.

In Stagflation, the Fed and all Central Banks face a dilemma—raise rates to fight inflation or keep them low to stimulate growth?

Generally, in the past, rate hikes relative to inflation were modest.

Until a crisis point is reached, weak growth prevents hardening rates and thereby killing the economy’s capacity to expand above inflation.

Gold benefits because its lack of yield amid tepid rates is not deemed a drawback. In plainer terms, negative real rates, a feature of Stagflation, are a big tailwind for gold.

From 1971 to 1980, gold rose from about $35 per ounce to a peak of $850 in January 1980—a nominal increase of over 2,300%—driven by inflation spiking to double digits and economic stagnation.

Adjusted for inflation, gold’s real return above inflation was around 10% annually during that decade, vastly outpacing equities and fixed-income bonds.

But gold isn’t an all-weather asset; it can be volatile in Stagflation.

Price dips will occur, especially if investors liquidate assets for cash because of economic stress or if inflation expectations briefly soften. Gold’s long-term trend in Stagflation, however, is upward.

If Stagflation gives way to aggressive rate rises (less common but possible), gold’s lack of yield would hurt its relative appeal, but this risk is muted in sustained Stagflation, where growth worries temper rate increases.

In the 1970s, a weakening dollar amplified gold’s rise.

Gold is priced in US dollars, so its performance can also reflect dollar strength or weakness. If Stagflation weakens a major currency like the US dollar or euro, gold’s gains may be magnified for investors in those currencies.

In summary, gold shines in Stagflation as a defensive asset, historically delivering robust returns when inflation and uncertainty dominate.

Its performance makes it a compelling addition to a portfolio facing such conditions, though its volatility requires a balanced allocation, rather than an all-in bet.

Inflation-Linked Bonds: a Haven during Stagflation

Inflation-linked Government Bonds (Linkers), such as US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) or UK Index-Linked Gilts, are designed to protect investors from inflation.

Their principal and interest payments adjust in line with CPI.

In a Stagflation scenario, Linkers tend to outperform fixed-interest bonds because their returns rise with inflation.

The real yield (adjusted for inflation) remains relatively stable, preserving purchasing power.

For example, if inflation is 5% and a Linker offers a real yield of 1%, the nominal return is 6%. In sustained high inflation, this adjustment mechanism makes Linkers a hedge against eroding value.

Fixed-interest bonds (eg traditional government or corporate bonds) suffer in this environment.

Their fixed coupon payments and principal lose real value as inflation rises, so, for example, if a bond pays a 2.5% coupon and inflation is 5.5%, the real return is -3%.

Inflation-linked bonds generally outperform fixed-interest bonds in Stagflation, because they mitigate the inflation risk that fixed bonds cannot escape.

Historical data, like the 1970s Stagflation period in the US, shows real assets or inflation-adjusted instruments held up better than nominal fixed-income securities.

Fixed-interest bonds suffer valuation falls as rates rise, resetting their attractiveness for new investment, and this acts as a buffer for the sector.

In Stagflation, however, where there is much uncertainty about the scale of inflation and the capacity of central banks to raise rates without triggering a sharp recession, linkers outperform because they surf the inflation wave no matter how high and long it is sustained.

Equities face a challenging environment in Stagflation because stagnant growth reduces corporate revenues and profits, especially for cyclical companies tied to economic expansion (eg, consumer discretionary, industrials).

Meanwhile, high inflation increases input costs (labour, materials), squeezing margins, unless firms can pass costs to consumers.

However, weak demand due to unemployment and low growth often limits pricing power.

Some equity sectors may fare better—energy and commodities often benefit from inflation, while defensive stocks (e.g. utilities, healthcare) may hold up due to stable demand.

Growth stocks, reliant on low interest rates and future earnings, tend to get thumped as inflation reduces the present value of future cash flows.

During the 1970s Stagflation, US equities (eg, S&P 500) experienced volatile but generally poor real returns, averaging around 1-2% annually after inflation, far below long-term averages of 8% to 10%.

Properties’ performance in Stagflation is a mixed bag, depending on how hard and deep Stagflation hits.

During Stagflation, property can act as an asset sink: housing is a tangible asset, often seen as an inflation hedge, but rising replacement costs (e.g. construction materials, labour) can boost property values.

Rental income may also rise with inflation, especially if leases include escalation clauses tied to CPI.

Commercial properties, on the other hand, with strong tenants can maintain cash flows.

When Stagnation hits hard, however, high unemployment and low growth reduce demand for housing and commercial space, increasing vacant space and capping rent increases.

If central banks raise rates to fight inflation, mortgage costs climb, depressing residential demand and property investments financed by debt.

This latter effect can often crater liquidity in property markets and amplify losses if forced sales occur.

So property can perform decently as an inflation hedge but is vulnerable to hard and deep stagnation. Houses in high-demand areas or inflation-adjusted leases fare better than over-borrowed property assets or investments in sub-prime property markets.

In summary, Linkers outperform fixed-interest bonds by maintaining real value; a strong choice in Stagflation especially if sustained.

Fixed-interest bonds underperform due to inflation eroding real returns and potential rate hikes.

Equity performance is generally weak, with low or negative real returns, though select sectors may buck the trend.

Property is a mixed bag—it offers inflation protection but is dragged down by hard stagnation; however, outcomes will depend on location, debt and lease conditions.

Gold is king in Stagflation but bear in mind that Stagflation is not yet a given based on what we see before us at the end of Q1 2025. In a sustained Stagflation environment, inflation-linked bonds also stand out as a safe haven compared to fixed-interest bonds, while equities and property face headwinds from the dual threats of stagnation and inflation.

Diversification across asset classes is always a must, but in Stagflation, a tactical tilt towards gold and inflation-linked bonds is a must.

Conclusion

That we are entering a Stagflation environment is not a given, but it is a rising risk.

It makes sense to hold on tightly to any gold and linkers that you may have and to consider adding to your position from your cash, as matters unfold over the coming months.

If you’d like to go into more detail or undertake an overall strategic review, you can contact my financial firm Hobbs Financial Practice Ltd at +353 (45) 409354 or eddie@eddiehobbs.com.

Until next time,

Eddie

A reminder for you to join us this Thursday (March 20th) in Cork where we’ll be kicking off our series of free in person talks at the Radisson Hotel, Little Island (T45 WF53).

We will explore the challenges facing Irish society and the path forward to preserving freedom.

Here's how our evening will unfold:

• 6:00 PM: Informal meet and greet to connect personally

• 7:00—8:30 PM: Main presentation and interactive Q&A session

Bring friends and family who are questioning the official narrative.

Those who sense something is off but can't pinpoint it.

I call them our 'Nearly Awake' persons (NAPs), and they need this information now more than ever.

Together, we'll explore ten vital questions that affect our future, our families, and our freedoms:

1. Who is constructing a Global Control Grid, through which agencies and for what objective?

2. How does that play out for freedom, for culture, and for your family?

3. Which supranational agencies are involved: BIS, WEF, WHO, UN, and a swarm of NGOs?

4. By what three-letter creeds will you know them: DEI, ESG, SDG?

5. How and when did Ireland get sold out, and what is needed to reverse it?

6. What is the character of the US Counter Revolution across what omni-front?

7. How is the European political landscape shifting to follow suit?

8. How can the Cass Report science be used to stop queering kids' classrooms?

9. Why is Europe flooding, and what is needed to stop violent extremists?

10. What can you do to help?

This isn't just another talk.

It's our chance to build a community of informed, action-ready citizens who understand what's happening to our beloved Ireland.

Can't wait until Thursday?

Download my free e-book 'Breaking Totalitarianism', which the talks are based on.

It represents over four years of my life, countless sleepless nights, and interviews with over 20 experts who dared to speak out.

Get my book now

See you Thursday.

Together, we can turn this around.

Eddie

P.S. If Cork doesn't work for you, I'm bringing these critical revelations to:

DUBLIN: Wednesday, April 9th at the City North Hotel, Gormanston, K32 W562

ATHLONE: Wednesday, May 14th at the Spring Hotel, Monksland, N37 F9T3

Irish media coverage on Trump 2.0 has been a lamentable mix of personal bile, alarm, and Dail bar-type advice on the bowl of shamrocks called into the Planters House.

This includes Leo Varadkar’s contribution in the last Sunday Times edition.

There’s been little Irish analysis on Trump’s strategy. Without this analysis, there’s no real understanding or chance of developing an Irish counterstrategy.

If the current Taoiseach flies to Washington thinking Irish pearl-clutching analysis is enough, he’ll miss the chance to make a real connection and build a new bridge to Europe.

Here’s why.

Fear is Driving Trump 2.0

Trump 2.0 is driven by fear of the ‘Triffin Curse’ unless the USA takes major corrective action.

This doesn’t mean deserting its lead role, but forcing burden sharing on major trading partners, possibly in a two-step process.

Trump can’t publicly admit it, but he’s concerned about the USA maintaining the dollar as the world’s reserve currency without the Colossus descending into insolvency. There’s no sign of this yet, which would show in sharply rising US Treasury bond yields as credit markets suss out the same fear, but the centerpiece of the strategy is to avoid a Triffin train wreck.

A visit to the US Debt Clock (https://www.usdebtclock.org/) highlights the Achilles Heel of the Colossus.

The longer the current trajectory is maintained without a major shift, the greater the risk of the Triffin Curse unfolding.

Economist Robert Triffin (October 5th, 1911 - February 23rd, 1993) rattles Trump.

Triffin had criticised Bretton Woods fixed exchange rates and predicted the collapse of the US Dollar’s gold convertibility due to the excess of dollars externally over Treasury gold reserves.

He was bang on. On August 15th, 1971, President Nixon binned dollar convertibility to gold. Leaving aside personalities, the hard logic is that, from a White House perspective, Trump is behaving rationally. He is correct in seeking this objective even if opaque.

The rest of us have a clear stake in his attempt, even if the journey is queasy and the pace causes anxieties.

The Triffin Curse

Named after Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, this describes an elemental tension facing any nation whose currency serves as the world reserve currency.

Although Triffin’s hypothesis arose during the 1960s under the Bretton Woods system, when the dollar was tied to gold, his principles remain in the fiat currency world and are especially charged at a time of highly elevated national and internal debt linked to social undertakings on health and pensions, for example.

These stalk Europe as populations decline and age, but the USA is also stalked by a chronic disease burden linked to sub-optimal public health, from twin opioid and obesity crises, the latter caused by processed foods and the power dynamics of the corporate capture that marks out the USA.

Triffin’s tensions arise from the tension between US domestic economic needs and international obligations.

As the issuer of the global reserve currency, the US must supply the world with sufficient dollars to lubricate international trade, but this can cause persistent trade deficits because other countries accumulate dollars by exporting more to the US than they import.

To make matters worse, globalisation expanded demand for the dollar but boosted the financialised sectors, bonds, derivatives, speculation and debt dependency at the expense of manufacturing, agriculture and mining—the resources economy.

Trump sees a USA that has become enfeebled.

‘Make America Great Again’ has resonated because that’s what Trump’s supporters see in front of their eyes when they drive around their locality.

Wealth creation has become a matter of investing in digitalised assets, not in US steel, resources and local food.

Small businesses are hollowed out and absorbed by fund behemoths; everything is for sale and commoditised for trading on Wall Street.

When deficits build off a low debt/GDP base, Triffin stays as a matter of debate for academics, but with the USA at post-WWII levels, it manifests itself as a clear and present danger, upon which Musk has been particularly vocal.

This, I suspect, is how Trump also sees it and grasps that the deficits will ultimately destroy confidence in the dollar.

His administration, I think, is treading a narrow path between unpleasant choices.

If the US floods the world with dollars, it devalues its currency through inflation and loses trust from foreign buyers.

On the other hand, if the US reduces its deficits to stabilise the dollar at home by raising rates or cutting spending, it restricts the global supply of dollars, damaging international trade and global economic growth, starting a vortex that can quickly descend into real structural harm.

What is the Trump 2.0 Strategy?

Trump may be using tariffs apace to force trading partners into a global accord, for which there is precedent, to devalue the US dollar, thus making the USA industrially competitive abroad and addressing trade deficits, albeit at the price of the growth pathway of other nations, compelled to the negotiation table to burden-share as Trump sees it.

In doing so, he will reset US military cover to those that comply in a much-changed Pax Americana.

The Trump shock may be to deliver the first step in a two-step process by way of lightning moves on tariffs to its trading partners and, after a painful reality check, segue to step two: a call for a reset of the currency system, somewhere between a narrow Plaza Accord (New York, 1985) and a broad Bretton Woods agreement (New Hampshire, 1944).

Trump’s accord, if there is going to be one, is likely to be in Palm Springs, Florida.

Trump, I expect, eyes tariffs—a hark back to mercantile international politics—as a fast track to a dollar reset, but he masks it under a grievance of unfairness.

He wants to compress US trade deficits by making goods and services from outside the USA uncompetitive within it and so supercharge domestic production.

This deficit diminution reduces Triffin tension because it lowers the compulsion to excessively supply dollars externally.

It is, however, a dangerously fine line because it risks domestic inflation as tariffs are passed through to US consumers.

Triffin, in a pre-globalisation age, didn’t imagine that US national security could be threatened by broken supply lines for vital military resources, from chips to steel, but Covid lockdowns changed the calculus for everybody, including the USA.

This is also driving the agenda in parallel with protecting the currency; both are connected.

Tariffs, while boosting the US internal economy, have the benefit of rebalancing world trade away from its reliance on US consumers, stemming Triffin tension further and gradually reducing reliance on the Dollar as the reserve currency.

The big challenge is that the success of Trump’s implicit strategy relies on finesse in carrying it out.

That means ideally relying on multilateral agreements, not lightning unilateral actions.

Conclusion

Notwithstanding Trump’s foibles, he is a rational actor with a clear objective, and treating him as some kind of derangement is a monumental blunder.

So far, none of the trading partners, including Ireland, has done much more than clutch pearls and rattle sabres. This is the wrong approach, in my opinion.

The world needs to address the needs of the USA if it is going to sustain itself both as a superpower and as the supplier of the reserve currency.

There is no other contender.

The Trump administration is moving apace through the gears of its first 100 days, unbalancing opponents but knowing that gravity and opposition will eventually set in.

The drama is feedstock for financial market volatility until the new macroeconomic and geopolitical normal reveals itself.

Meanwhile, diplomats would be best advised to address the underlying fear and motive that appears to be driving Trump, as this offers the best route to reaching agreements for a world he is determined to change.

If you’d like to go into more detail or undertake an overall strategic review, you can contact my financial firm Hobbs Financial Practice Ltd at +353 (45) 409354 or eddie@eddiehobbs.com.

Until next time,

Eddie

This series of special in-person community events features Eddie's compelling presentation on the issues shaping our world today, based on his groundbreaking free e-book Breaking Totalitarianism.

• Cork: Thursday, March 20th at the Radisson Hotel, Little Island, T45 WF53

• Dublin: Wednesday, April 9th at the City North Hotel, Gormanston, K32 W562

• Athlone: Wednesday, May 14th at the Spring Hotel, Monksland, N37 F9T3

The evening begins with an informal Meet and Greet at 6:00 PM, followed by Eddie's main presentation and interactive Q&A session from 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM.

You're encouraged to bring along someone who is beginning to question the current narrative—who we like to call Nearly Awake Persons (NAPs).

Together, we'll explore ten vital questions that affect our future, our families, and our freedoms:

1. Who is constructing what Global Control Grid, through what agencies and for what objective?

2. How does that play out for freedom, for culture, and for your family?

3. Which supranational agencies are involved: BIS, WEF, WHO, UN, and swarm of NGOs?

4. By what three-letter creeds will you know them: DEI, ESG, SDG?

5. How and when was Ireland sold out, and what is needed to reverse it?

6. What is the character of the US Counter Revolution across what omni-front?

7. How is the European political landscape shifting to follow suit?

8. How can queering kids' classrooms be stopped using Cass Report science?

9. Why is Europe being flooded, and what is needed to stop violent extremists?

10. What can you do to help?

    ---

In the meantime, if you want to get informed on the very roots of what we will be discussing, read my book Breaking Totalitarianism, bringing together 4+ years of research and 20+ expert interviews—get it FREE right now.

Get my book now

This is more than just an event; it is an opportunity to create community with others who share your concerns and commitment to preserving freedom in Ireland.

Looking forward to seeing you there,
Eddie

PS: I would love to hear from you on this if you are going and what you think about what you see. Reply to this email with your thoughts.

Tariffs as Trump's Bargaining Chip

It has been a breathtaking two weeks of Trump 2.0; here I’ve distilled a macroeconomic analysis for 1215 Tribes – there is much more happening, as you know, including the US exit from the WHO, its dismantling of what is described as the Deep State, the ditching of DEI and progress on the appointment of Bobby Kennedy Jr. Here I pause to look at tariffs at this early stage and what can be discerned from Trump’s actions. I expect to test this by way of interviewing a notable US expert over the coming days on Counterpoint at YouTube. More anon.

In past bulletins it was expected that Trump would deploy tariffs and White House power primarily as a negotiation tool, a wedge to draw concessions. This is the pattern already established, as Colombia, Panama, Mexico and Canada have experienced. Colombia and Panama caved, and for both the USA and big neighbours, there is now a one-month suspension on 25% tariffs to allow space for negotiation. That Trump blinked, I suspect, was gamed out well in advance. China has countered 10% US tariffs with 15% Chinese tariffs on key resources, including rare earth metals, and has opened an investigation into Google for anti-competitive practices.

According to Eurostat, EU exports to and imports from the USA increased between January 2022 and December 2023. Monthly exports grew from €39.6bn in Jan 2022 to €43.3bn in Dec 2022. Imports from the United States were €24.2 billion in Jan 2022, growing to €31.1 billion in Dec 2023. In January 2022 the monthly trade surplus was €15.4 billion. It hit a low of €8.8 billion in July 2022 and stood at €12.2 billion in December 2022.

EU Braces for Trump's Power Play

The EU, including Ireland, awaits in the wings as the USA's biggest trading partner and regional NATO ally.

Things are already heating up with the EU Commission dusting off its 2023 Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), according to what resembles a leak to the Financial Times on Feb. 5th aimed at the Silicon oligarchy.

ACI that can be targeted at US tech behemoths, right up to revoking intellectual property protections and activities like streaming services and downloads. This would put Ireland smack in the front-line foxholes given who is headquartered here.

Until Trump acts, the EU will vacillate between appeasement and this kind of sabre rattling, knowing that since the February 2022 conflict on its eastern flank, the region is economically vulnerable to the USA, especially on energy supplies and on its speed of reaction to Trump because it relies on coordination across the 27-member bloc.

As has been outlined here before, tension with a belligerent former ally may have the medium-term undesired effect of pushing the EU into creating a Eurasian economic zone with Russia, post a Ukraine settlement, one that would extend to Vladivostok on the Pacific linking tariff-free Russian natural resources to EU wealth and economic know-how and birth a Eurasian pole in the multipolar world emerging before us. This is not a given, but it is what the USA would fear the most.

Trump appears to be “flooding the zone” with multiple actions, including his intention to turn Gaza into a US territory to bolster Israeli regional security.

These are designed to keep opponents off balance and to get as much underway from his policy platform before the thick mud begins to set, a period that is thought to last 100 days.

Trump isn’t just focusing on closing borders to the fentanyl scourge and criminal immigration, as he sees it, but he clearly relishes the buccaneering economic power his desk gives him, for the time being.

This will be curtailed, however, in a few months if, as expected, lower tariffs across the board formally enter the US tax code in its budget processes through Congress.

Nevertheless, whichever way you distil the action, we have entered a world where the USA government will seek a return of capital invested in Pax Americana now disappearing before us.

In Hollywood speak, Trump is ditching long-standing US foreign policy, dragging us at warp speed into a transactional and multipolar world, being absent a sheriff and showing little regard for international agreements, procedures to resolve disputes, laws and relationships.

What Could Go Wrong?

Escalating tit-for-tat tariffs may play well initially in the unthinking American “patriot”, but a few months of sharp price rises for the US working poor and supply chain shortages for businesses and the mood will turn dark starting in its Treasury market.

Trump’s team knows well that a full-blooded global trade war risks creating the alienation of the USA and inflation at home, which would be politically very damaging.

Trump isn’t stupid; he knows all this, but I suspect he games it hoping to normalise a lower order of tariffs to contribute towards improving US debt/GDP while Musk at DOGE cuts into excesses and corruption in agencies like USAID.

The development agency, for example, paid $38m to Ben Hu at the Wuhan Institute of Virology to enhance bat viruses in so-called gain-of-function research.

President Trump's broader strategy is to use US clout and economic policy as a tool for geopolitical ends, like in border security and combating drug smuggling.

This gives him options where he can claim a win by either implementing or suspending his tariffs based on their foreign policy outcomes.

It is evident that the tariff suspension has come with US conditions.

In short, Mexico and Canada are expected to make continuous efforts to meet US demands concerning other related issues.

It is also clear the US will keep the threat of tariffs active as a means to ensure compliance and extract further concessions.

There is a mixed reaction; US Republicans will see it as a necessary step to address serious issues like the fentanyl crisis and illegal immigration, while others view it as aggressive economic policy that might break long-term relations.

Economists and trade experts have cautioned about the broader implications on trade agreements like the USMCA.

These dramatic tactics could destabilise the predictability needed for business investments; in short, trade wars are the enemy of certainty and toxic to business investment, which means toxic to research and development, to innovation and to jobs.

The use of tariffs in this aggressive and sudden manner undermines the stability of trade relations, affecting future trade negotiations with other global partners.

The strategy will encourage other countries to prepare for similar tactics in future negotiations, negatively affecting how international trade is conducted.

The Daddy of Globalism Attempts a Vasectomy

But the reality is that the daddy of globalism, the USA, cannot magic itself into isolationism by decree.

Interdependent global trading has become the norm for decades and exists upon a massive rewiring of the global economy that simply isn’t set up to deal with fortress USA, a sudden self-alienation of the world’s economic colossus.

America is a business, plain and simple, so for these reasons I expect hard negotiations, but for compromise to prevail as business sense outlasts early passions.

However, what is abundantly clear is that Trump 2.0 is a very different animal from 1.0; he’s arrived with a forensic plan and is draining the swamp, as he sees it.

It is early days for sure, but watch how other countries, mired in similar structural issues, will follow the Trump 2.0 lead.

This is very bad news for the quangos, aimless NGOs and excessive public bureaucracies that afflict many Western nations led by political classes hopelessly unprepared for the counter-revolution spreading across the North Atlantic.

This particularly includes Ireland, and we may expect some rough treatment, especially from powerful US Zionist lobbies.

On this trajectory and pace, Trump may yet cancel the bowl of shamrock at the White House on St. Patrick’s Day.

It would be a good outcome if he’d leave it at that because if this trajectory breaks out into an all-out trade war, one that makes US technology and pharma a battleground, Ireland’s modern economy, every part of it from public finances to property, will be in play.

In this extreme scenario, the Irish government's stability will be tested, as will public willingness to blindly follow the EU, which it has already done on open borders despite the Irish opt-out.

Ireland's Stall

Ireland's full-year exports to the USA in 2023 were substantial, valued at around $58.83 billion according to COMTRADE, the UN database on international trade.

Trump may decide to try to divide and conquer the EU, targeting, for example, Germany’s car industry and EU rules on food, but exercise more caution with Ireland, firstly because it is a small economy, and secondly because it is the favoured European landing zone for powerful US global behemoths and uses the low-cost model he advocates.

It will be a close-run thing, however, given the Irish establishment's treatment of the Israeli government, the hostility directed by Irish leaders towards the Trump return and the appetite in Brussels to hit US tech and pharma.

What could happen if common sense doesn’t prevail?

1. US tariffs would likely make Irish-made goods more expensive in the US market, leading to a decrease in demand for them, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, machinery and chemicals. A reduction in exports would lead to job losses in sectors that rely heavily on the US market.
   ​

2. Ireland as a hub for US multinationals in Europe, due to its favourable corporate tax rates and English-speaking workforce, may start eroding. Increased tariffs would incentivise US companies to relocate production back to Uncle Sam or to other countries with less trade risk, affecting employment, investment and innovation in Ireland. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) would, in those circumstances, decrease, as the attractiveness of Ireland as a base for US companies would be diminished, slowing Irish economic growth, reducing tax revenues and leading to less economic activity.
   ​

3. EU tariffs would lead to higher costs for imported goods from the US and pressurise higher inflation in Ireland. This would affect the cost of living, particularly if there's no corresponding increase in wages. Ireland might seek to diversify its trade partners to mitigate the impact of US tariffs, but this process would take a lot of time.
   ​

4. In the worst case, a significant fall in revenues from corporate taxes, especially from US tech giants, could lead to a shortfall in government revenue, affecting public services and infrastructure development at a time when the Irish government responses to the health and housing crises have underwhelmed at a time of largesse.
   ​

5. If the EU retaliates against US tariffs, there will be a broader impact on the European economy, which in turn would also affect Ireland. The uncertainty and potential for a trade war could lead to reduced consumer and business confidence, slowing down investments and economic activities.
   ​

6. While tariffs primarily affect goods, the services sector might also feel indirect effects through changes in economic conditions, investment climates and possibly through retaliatory measures in service trade.

Conclusion

Given these points, Ireland would need to navigate this scenario with strategic policy responses, including negotiations for exemptions or mitigations from tariffs, enhancing trade relations with other global markets and domestic policy adjustments to support affected sectors.

The situation would require close monitoring of international trade developments and proactive economic planning.

Below is a snapshot of financial markets year to date.

At this early stage and until the US hand is revealed, we simply do not know and cannot assess what will happen.

In the round, Ireland's strategic position might yet lead to a tailored response considering its unique relationship with the US, which is very different from all other EU members.

That is the hope, but hope is not a plan.

Until Trump 2.0 settles down, I’d guide caution on making any dramatic changes to assets, except for gold, which continues to strengthen, up nearly 10% from €2510 to €2758 in 2025.
​
If you’d like to go into more detail or undertake an overall strategic review, you can contact my financial firm Hobbs Financial Practice Ltd at +353 (45) 409354 or eddie@eddiehobbs.com.

Until next time,

Eddie

I sat down with medical doctor and public health specialist Dr. Vincent Carroll to discuss a watershed moment in healthcare policy.
​
A shift that Irish institutions—the doctors and teachers to which we entrust our children—are largely ignoring:

The Cass Report.

A comprehensive four-year scientific review that’s reshaping transgender & gender identity care for young people across the UK.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Irish children and families.

Our closest neighbours have pivoted to evidence-based approaches.
​
Yet Irish schools and healthcare providers remain tethered to outdated ideological frameworks that the Cass Report explicitly warns against.

Several alarming points from our chat:

1. The Cass Report, commissioned by the NHS and led by eminent paediatrician Dr. Hilary Cass, represents gold-standard medical science.

2. Ireland’s current gender-affirming model, based on 1979 WPATH guidelines, lacks scientific evidence and may be actively harmful to children.

3. Irish institutions face potential legal liability for continuing practices the Cass Report identifies as harmful.

4. Third-party advocacy groups are entering Irish schools without proper risk assessment or scientific backing.

The data is particularly concerning.

There’s been a 27-fold increase in children presenting with gender-related issues from 2009-2020, with 75% being female (reminded of the surge of eating disorders among women in the 70s and 80s).

Yet Ireland continues to follow an affirmation-first approach that the UK Health Secretary described as “too affirmative, too narrow and bordering on ideological.”

What might practical leadership actions looks like for us?

1. Board members and leaders of schools, sports clubs, and youth organisations must review the Cass Report immediately.

2. Develop new policies aligned with current scientific evidence.

3. Implement proper risk assessments before allowing third-party groups to interact with children.

4. Consider legal and insurance implications of ignoring best-practice medical guidelines.

The path forward requires courage from community leaders to prioritise children’s wellbeing over ideological pressures.

As Dr. Carroll emphasises, “You cannot vote science in or vote science out. Science is science.”

For those in leadership positions, the time for manufactured ignorance is over.

The science is clear, comprehensive, and compelling.

The question now is: Who will step forward to protect Irish children with evidence-based policies?

Click here to watch the full interview

And for those who want to understand the roots of what is going on here, read my book Breaking Totalitarianism, bringing together 4+ years of research and 20+ expert interviews for free.

Get book now

Wishing you all a healthy and prosperous new year,
Eddie

Happy New Year folks.
​
Let's start as we mean to go on: by chasing truth.

In this eye-opening conversation, Dr Jonathan Engler, a lawyer and doctor, challenges conventional narratives about the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
​
Dr Engler believes there was no pandemic.
​
That there were zero new pathogens added to humanity's disease pool back in 2020.

He breaks down how he sees the that the "COVID crisis" was actually a carefully orchestrated propaganda event using mass testing and media manipulation.

Expect to learn how lockdowns contradicted established respiratory virus science, the problems with trusting official mortality data, the inflammatory effects of mRNA injections and whether you're still at risk years after taking them, why countries should leave the WHO and reject centralisation, and much more.
​
We had to release on X, as platforms like YouTube and TikTok tend to censor any dissenting narratives around COVID—click here to watch.

And for those who want to dig deeper, my book Breaking Totalitarianism is the perfect way to start the new year.

Get the e-book for FREE or grab a stunning hardback edition to help someone you love wake up to the forces shaping our world.

Wishing you all a healthy and prosperous new year,
Eddie

Do you value freedom?
​
Connection?
​
Truth?

Professor Mattias Desmet, clinical psychologist and author of The Psychology of Totalitarianism, unpacks the psychological forces driving society toward control, disconnection, and manipulation.

And what we can do to resist.

Here’s why this conversation matters:

1. Freedom: Understand how mass formation traps entire populations in blind obedience to authority.

2. Connection: Learn how our hyper-digital world reduces human resonance by 95%, fuelling loneliness and division.

3. Truth: Discover how propaganda exploits fear to create a "diabolic pact" between elites and the masses.

This is more than a conversation. It’s a toolkit for protecting your humanity in a world increasingly driven by control and conformity.

Please like and share this as much as possible—your action counts.

Watch the full interview by clicking here.

He believes that, while totalitarianism will inevitably self-destruct, we cannot yet fathom how much damage it will do en route and can expect darker days ahead. He advocates for continued open resistance as a vital countermeasure, arguing that such resistance ought not to go underground. It is its openness and emphasis on human bonds, ethical principles, and human resonance that are paramount.

This chimes precisely with 1215 Tribes.

If you haven't yet got a copy of Breaking Totalitarianism, you can get it for free as an e-book by clicking here.

You can also buy it in superb hardback, soft back, and audio formats, and you can get a package of interviews exclusive to the book.

Whatever you choose, please spread the free e-book about like seedlings throughout your network. It is written and aimed at the NAPs—the nearly awake persons.

We need many more to awaken if we are to defeat the totalitarian vortex that is gathering all about.

Thanks,
Eddie

Trump is Back

The general neurosis has passed through the commentariat like a dose of Epsom salts.

Trump is back.

But is his inbound administration another temporary blip on the road to progressive left liberalism or the swing of the pendulum back to the centre, marking a long-term shift in the Overton Window (the range of policies acceptable to the public as neither extreme nor irrational)?

In reality, both Europe and the USA have shifted the window back from the left towards the centre, in my opinion.
​
Moreover, the policy platform emerging for the USA will quickly be adapted in Europe, where the phenomenon is apparent from the year of the European elections in Germany, France, Italy, Holland, Austria, Sweden, and Finland.

The hammering the Greens got in Ireland over the weekend is a function of people waking up to the nonsense of net zero and is mirrored in the European elections and by the Republicans in the USA.

America's Economic Resilience Defies Skeptics

Despite the doomsayer industry of talk show panellists, videos, podcasts, and books, the US Treasury market has so far stood up, and with it the US electoral system.

Trump’s Republicans have taken all three houses: the White House, Congress, and the Senate.
​
It is a clear mandate for the reform policy program and a clear rejection of the Democrat platform of business as usual.

In practice, Trump’s platform is, for all intents and purposes, counterrevolutionary.

He is squarely going after the Deep State and its forever wars, which means an attempt to dismantle its vast tentacles across key aspects not just of government business in the military defence complex, foreign policy, and the oligarchy interface but also in pharma captivity of regulators and the capture of US media itself.

Elon Musk is tasked with leading DOGE, to chop into government waste; there’s plenty of that, likely to amount to trillions by the time he is done lightening the US deficit.

Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a favoured target of the Left (and whose works I’ve studied, as you know), is going after the pharma-processed food complex in an attempt to address the huge rates of chronic disease in the USA.

In a blizzard of announcements, Trump is talking tough on tariffs against importers. This is lost in a media sworn to present the developer as a vengeful dictator.

However, Trump’s behaviour is nothing new.

These stances marked his first presidency and are opening negotiating positions. Trump is being Trump, mouthy and staking out his opening position, but, in reality, his compromise will be different, especially with Europe once cycled through the washing machine of economics, international politics, and geopolitical reality.

Press hard on Europe, and the USA knows full well that an isolationist US will fast-forward what it most fears, the development of a Eurasian economic block running from the Aran Islands to the Pacific and centred on Paris, Rome, Berlin, and Moscow, where Western Europe comes with the wealth and know-how and Russia with the energy and natural resources.

The USA remains the standout economic powerhouse, built on a virtuous circle of assets: deep capital markets, robust institutions, a growing population, huge military power, and the world reserve currency in the US dollar.

As a colossus, it faces serious challenges; the debt to GDP is eye-watering, raising concerns about its capacity to access credit at affordable prices, much of its infrastructure is old, and its people are grumpy and divided along key lines.

These are big problems but not insurmountable.

The USA will prolong its run as the world’s leading economy and ownership of the world reserve currency for a while yet, mostly because there isn’t an alternative.

Communist China, with its capital controls and ruthless surveillance of its fast-ageing population, is grappling with a massive property and debt overhang and is not capable of providing anything more than regional leadership.

Fatalities in its armed forces would end huge numbers of Chinese bloodlines due to the legacy of its one-child policy, and now, as a consumer economy, it no longer enjoys the cheapest labour status; that has passed to regional rivals.

The BRICS attempt to create a dollar alternative is not only challenged by the complexity of pressing together diverse, dispersed economies on different economic cycles but also now faces Trump’s promise to block US market access for doing so.

Europe remains sclerotic, ageing, stifled by regulation, and unsure of itself, its existential risk worsened by outsourcing security to the US-led NATO, which many analysts think would last but a few days in a conventional war with Russia.

Neither favour such a disastrous confrontation (see Draghi’s Report Card on Europe below).

USA and the rest of the developed world have emerged from a horrible period of nose-bleeding rate hikes, up fivefold from 2021.

This followed two years of intermittent lockdowns and widespread closures and losses of business that would normally mean we ought to be in deflation or depression. Instead, we were dished up excess inflation of at least 20%, reducing the purchasing power of money drastically in a short window.

Inflation has been tempered, running at 2.9% in the USA and 1.8% in the Eurozone from heights touching on double digits.

The rate-cutting cycle has begun, albeit slowly, but US futures markets still flash another 2% rate cut over the next two years (for readers who invest in financial assets, that translates into a continued bounce back in bond funds and supports equities through cheaper credit).

Patience is needed before this extraordinary hiking and cutting cycle enters the history books.

But, if you look beneath the billion-dollar mud-throwing melee that passes for a US presidential election these days, and what do you see?

• Signs of improved risk-taking favouring equities.

• A job-producing engine, with 1.2 vacancies per unemployed.

• Household purchasing power is up 4.4% as 2024 closes out.

• Fast tech adoption, ChatGPT is already past 100 million users.

• More liquidity as rates cut supportive of cheaper long-term mortgage debt.

• Surging stock market led by tech giants after breaking out of the COVID drift.

The Age of Productivity and Improved Living Standards?

“Productivity isn't everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything. A country's ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker."
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Paul Krugman (The Age of Diminished Expectations, 1990).

Look over the immediate horizon, and the growing muscle mass for a long-term economic cycle is apparent.

Notwithstanding the social challenges all this change brings, such as workforce replacement with technologies, the net result is higher productivity and economic expansion.

• There is a shift to a multipolar world order.

• The health industry must respond to the ageing of the West.

• The energy transition affecting all countries will not be smooth.

• There is very fast-moving technological change across many vectors, not least in quantum computing.

After the discombobulation, we may not feel like welcoming the new guest, but it is here: the 4th Industrial Revolution has arrived and will stay for decades if we can, collectively, avoid catastrophe from geopolitical failures and rising 21st-century totalitarianism.

In that regard, the US counter-revolution, for that’s what it is, promises to offload virtue signalling woke policies:

• Critical Theory

• Queer Theory

• Climate Alarmism (or what Trump calls the Climate Scam)

This is all part of a Trump-led attack on the stranglehold of the Deep State and much leaner government, betting that resurgent economic power will not throw the debt out of whack and unity may be restored in time by real gains for workers and the US middle classes.

It is a huge task.

The journey will be very bumpy, but it has begun.

Entering into the foot of this era, Trump’s economic policy platform advocates for tax cuts and a war on red tape.

The gambit is that over time this will surge US GDP and lessen the debt burden per dollar created but at the risk of higher inflation and pushing up US bond yields as credit markets price in the risk.

This is already happening.

After hitting a low of 3.6% in mid-September in anticipation of the first of the FED cuts, the key US 10-year bond yield climbed to 4.47% by mid-November only to retreat by month-end to 4.22%.

For the first time in modern history, the bond curve will be impacted by the work of a waste tsar and oligarch, Elon Musk.

If he succeeds, which will be quickly seen, the impact on Europe will be profound—the pendulum may swing towards slimmer government and conservative policies.

Trump's Policies at a Glance: A Sweeping Vision for Economic Change

1. Slash corporate tax by 6% to 15% and reinstate unlimited state and local tax deductions.

2. Deport much of the USA’s 11 million illegal immigrants, some 4% of the labour force, using catch and release policies.

3. Increase tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% and ban ownership of critical infrastructure.

4. Settle the Russia-Ukrainian War and reform NATO, enforcing increased spending by members.

5. Cut costs of drugs, increase competition, slim down red tape with focus on improved US health.

6. Repeal Biden’s climate policies and encourage fossil fuel drilling and mining key minerals.

7. Shrivel excess red tape with a special focus on energy, construction, and finance.

Draghi’s Report Card on Europe

The former European Central Bank chief’s recent report won’t come as a surprise to Europe watchers. He nails down the challenges faced.

A virtuous circle of interconnections evolves over a long time such as those experienced in the USA and in economies like Switzerland.
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These have cultural, attitudinal, financial, and philosophical inputs not merely related to finance and institutions.
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It is why Americans think differently and why they see failure as a learning and development opportunity and not a means to demean and dismiss risk takers.

Draghi identifies the productivity and innovation gap between Europe and the US, pointing to the technology sector, which means the USA will scale faster and stay in front given its huge investment in R&D.

There is a shortage of EU venture finance, he finds, and, overall, much lower risk-taking relative to savings in banks and in bonds.

He also identifies fragmentation in markets, variable governance standards, and a skills shortage in mathematics, science, technology, and engineering.

Especially obvious is Europe’s poor energy security, high energy costs, and poor access to critical raw materials.

No marks for the emphasis on excessive regulation and bureaucracy. Ever tried opening a bank account?

As a banker, Draghi naturally proposes the issuance of EU bonds to deepen capital markets and so assist in growing innovative enterprises; overall investment spending needs to ramp up 4%-5% of GDP annually.

Look through the economic language, and the scorecard is a clarion call for revolutionary reform within the EU and Eurozone, or face stagnation.

Irish General Election: Old Institutions Crumble as Reality Bites

Firstly, bear in mind that in these tectonic movements on both sides of the Atlantic, the Dáil, as demonstrated by voting for the EU Migration Pact, by pushing queer theory into kids classrooms, and by attempting to redefine marriage in the roundly rejected constitutional referendum, hardly matters.
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The Dáil will follow, not lead.

So much Irish sovereignty has been ceded to the EU for so long, together with ceding to supranational organisations like the WHO and UN, joined at the hip to the WEF and its stakeholder capitalism, that both the political and civil service establishment have become captive.

It is noteworthy that not a single politician of any note focused this dynamic on the diminution of the Dáil or used the behaviour around the false pandemic as evidence.

This week I will launch, free as an e-book, Breaking Totalitarianism to awaken more Irish readers to what is really happening, why, and by whom, using what processes. More information to follow very soon.

In the meantime, my analysis on the general election:

• The crushing of the Greens is consistent with public shifts in the USA and Europe against the zero-carbon woke narrative and against the nonsense of so-called consensus science, which is a political ideology, not science.
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  The fear mongers are losing their grip the longer the fantastic illusion of their spectacular science ages and the more proper science and the upside-down economics of zero carbon break through to real-life experiences, such as selling a used EV.
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  There is a direct line to rampant housing and rental prices and the Cead Mile Failte that the virtue-signalling Green leader promulgated abroad.
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  Their wipeout as a political force is irreversible as the world shifts away from getting poorer to getting more prosperous, from fear to hope.
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  Europe itself has a massive hangover from failed green policies in Germany, whose economy is in decline while the rest of Europe watches aghast.
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• Sinn Féin is outed as a transfer-toxic, unfit, and untrustworthy main opposition party, leading to growth for Labour and Social Democrats.
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  Cut through the SF spin, and it has lost ground since 2020.
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  It has no route to government in the present calculus because its leadership managed to blow poll support, which has nearly halved based on these results.
  ​
  There is no Shinner Dawn.
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• The vote management performance of Fianna Fáil is very much old school and a commendable performance.
  ​
  But overall, the uni-party space is thinning when Fine Gael is added. Their support at the edge is promiscuous, largely due to a change in tone (not policy) on fake refugees after Varadkar exited and the revenue largesse constructed on bumper Corporation Tax receipts arrived in a Late Late type budget.
  ​

• Atomised, the Independent sector did not surge.
  ​
  The Fine Gael narrative shift took away its single-issue oxygen, exposing political inexperience. The failure to reach a common accord, even a single policy, is a brutal lesson in politics.
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  The Hutch surge was an act of contempt, a Councillor Bernard Murphy moment, best noted, then forgotten.

Conclusion

The new US administration is geared up to robustly reform the US economy and is not some ogre let loose to bully nation-states in the fashion of the exploitative era of buccaneering mercantilists.
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Despite the shift towards a multipolar world, prosperity depends on mutual trade hammered out in trade negotiations that fail unless both sides gain.
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Trump and his aides know how the game goes.

The dramatic emphasis on thinner government comes not a moment too soon to alter the direction of the US debt-to-GDP trajectory. It is Musk’s singular focus, without which the Colossus would inevitably unravel.

How long Trump’s enormous ego suffers Musk’s remains a concern.
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Events in the USA may be good for Europe, alarmed by Draghi’s scorecard and the degree to which Europe is falling behind and defensively is vulnerable militarily and in terms of energy security.
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Europe’s relative growth is impeded by its outsized bureaucracy, which reaches deep into the professions, finance, planning, etc.

Unadjusted Europe will continue to fall behind, but a peaceful outcome to the Ukrainian-Russian war ought to quickly reopen energy supply lines, short of which it is hard to see how Germany doesn’t continue to decline.

If geopolitical risks can be calmed by Trump, who professes to be anti-war, a strong growth period lies ahead.
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For those investing in financial assets favouring US risk assets, Asia post a new Sino-American trade deal is the way to think things through.

Europe can get cheaper, but without a strategy for reform, there will be good reason for why it is cheap.
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Gold ought to continue its run up, albeit after a recalibration reflecting concerns about global debt excesses and marking a weakening US dollar.

Kind regards,
Eddie​

The ancient Irish People, who predate the State by centuries and who have long asserted our rights to freedom from tyranny, do so again.

We declare the right of the Irish People to the unfettered control of Irish destinies, to be sovereign and indefeasible. We, the Irish People, demand our legal endowment from the 1987 Supreme Court Crotty ruling to a national referendum on the continuing membership of the World Health Organisation. We do so because the WHO intends to force a Trojan Horse Treaty upon us disguised as a new ‘Agreement’ and as a complete overhaul of Regulations. We demand, in the first instance, that the Irish Government rejects these manoeuvres as a breach of WHO membership rules and which require a four-month window before any changes are adopted

But we see through and beyond the agency of the WHO, to a multi-front agenda determined to create a bio-digital technocracy which threatens to subvert all liberal democracies and so we reach out to all at home and abroad, now awakening to the real and present danger from it.

Whispered through the sound of silence during the Lockdowns is the stark warning about the banality of evil from Hannah Arendt who studied the Eichmann Trial in Jerusalem in the early 60’s and who predicted that 21st century totalitarianism would be led, not by the monsters of the last one but by the banal bureaucrats of the next.

So, we recognise and applaud the intervention of all US Republican Senators to demand a Senate vote on the WHO plans to subvert US sovereignty, the rejection of it by large numbers of State Attorney Generals and the determination of many State legislatures, led by Louisiana to reject the WHO, the UN and the World Economic Forum. We recognise the intentions of the UK, Netherland and the Slovak Republic to reject the WHO and note that these events occur as the first major vaccine is pulled from human health due to the clotting of our human blood.

We muster here outside this Globalist Summit to remind its participants of our sovereign rights and personal freedom and to say to them; We see you. We see the psychological assault and abuse from advanced military grade propaganda across media that crushed informed consent, targeted, delicensed and deplatformed scientific dissent which, together with Government Lockdown fiats, compelled over 5.5bn people to be injected with experimental substances, while inexpensive, repurposed medicines were denigrated

We See You.

We see the preparation, the lowering of the bar on defining pandemics in 2009, by dropping high mortality and morbidity. We see the abandonment of established science on corona viruses in favour of inflicting even more damaging lockdowns, we see the redefinition of the term vaccine itself to no longer include stopping infection and transmission. We see the rising evidence everywhere, of excess deaths, disablement and harm caused to the human immune system; infertility, stage four turbo cancers, myocarditis, autoimmune disease and death by clotting.

We see in the WHO plans for a doubling down, for the reintroduction of discredited PCR test cycles but this time used in human wastewater to find pathogens, list them as national resources, enhance them in national gain-of-function bioweapon laboratories, to partner with pharmaceutical manufacturers in a repeat of the same model as the Wuhan Institute of Virology which, clearly birthed Covid 19.

We see and recognise the emblems of control and compliance; the ineffective face masks, the social distancing, the abandonment of the elderly to lonely deaths and the alienation of the Irish People from our ancient rites of grieving.

We See You.

We see the instrument of control revealed as you now attempt to double down; ensnaring freedom further through Digital ID surveillance passports that will hold vaccine records, personal carbon limits and spending restrictions controlled by remotely programmable Central Bank Digital Currency. We know these controls are being discussed at this globalist summit.

We see the captivity of social media platforms and search engines to thwart dissenters and send a cold chill through people splintered and divided by the propaganda from cheerleaders who led the vilification and demonisation of those who failed to comply.

We see the intention to roll out an assembly line of unilateral emergency declarations by the WHO Director General, to repeat the abuse, to control and demoralise the human population. He speaks tomorrow, giving a keynote address.

We See You.

We call on all Irish men and women engaged directly or indirectly, knowingly or unknowingly in the silence of this fading Irish political establishment and we call on those engaged at editorial level that led to the abandonment of the Irish People by the 4th Estate, the old media. We call upon you to turn away from your masters and their captive fact-checkers and turn instead towards the Irish People.

We see you through the wider agenda your attempts to subvert the bonds of homogenous society and family itself; the flooding of Ireland through unrestricted refugees advanced by the UN, the attempt to redefine family itself, rejected so emphatically by the Irish People, the proposal to restrict free speech through so-called Hate Speech laws and the distorted sexualisation and misgendering of our young children through UN education ideologies. We see you attempt to shatter the foundations of society, preparing it for its subjugation to your bio-digital technocracy, the very fulcrum of your 21st century totalitarian ambitions.

We see you in the Irish government’s continued participation in a globalist enterprise for which it has no mandate from the Irish People, a people who fought long and hard to repel the grip of empire, to which we have no intention of capitulating, no matter how it disguises itself: WHO Pandemic Agreement, Agenda 2030 with its so-called Sustainable Development Goals and the EU Migration Pact.

We see you in the moves to bring representative democracy to an end by replacing it with Stakeholder Capitalism. This is a model of centralised anti-democratic global governance advanced by the unelected World Economic Forum, which craves fusing state power, NGOs and corporate power, to the growing global power of unaccountable and unelected supranational institutions like the WHO and the UN.

We See You.

We see the Irish government cheering on the WHO while operating a hidden shadow programme for government which is largely founded on policies originating from these globalist institutions and whose impact is destroying social cohesion and stripping the Irish people of their rights, freedoms and sovereignty.

We see the perverse influence of the World Economic Forum in Irish affairs and in Irish leadership. We call on the next Government to prohibit membership of the WEF by cabinet members and by senior civil servants and members of our diplomatic corps and to openly declare the State’s opposition to that organisation’s Neo-Malthusian depopulation agenda, which traces back to an economic philosophy that underpinned the vast human catastrophe and depopulation of Ireland of the 1840’s.

We see the continued use by this fading Irish Government of disingenuous language and rhetoric to promote globalist policies to an unsuspecting public under the patently false pretext of safety, compassion, international obligation and climate change

We see the Irish Government’s failure to address critical aspects of the pandemic response including vaccine disabilities, harms and excess deaths. The lack of any meaningful investigation into the crisis betrays a fundamental disrespect for the Irish people who shouldered the burden of your policies, while you demonstrated an intolerable lack of accountability on your part

We demand an immediate independent transparent criminal investigation into the vaccines and into the handling of the pandemic response encompassing all clinical aspects including the legitimacy of using uber-magnified PCR tests. We demand fulsome disclosures of all communication with third party institutions and especially with personnel connected with the WHO, the Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, European Medicines Agency and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

We call on the new political establishment gathering in the wings to enshrine the Nuremberg Code into Irish law and to fight any resistance to doing so, recognising that this resistance can only have one objective; to cover up potential crimes.

To the Globalists here and everywhere, We See You.

We see among you the ambition to become transhuman beings, and an intention to convince us that we are not of Spirit and Soul, that we are not of God. We reject, most of all, this dark impulse in its entirety. We see contriving through it a malevolence that is not and never will be in us

Under God, We Sign This Declaration

Sign the declaration

Download a copy of the declaration by clicking here.